In the midst of a period of “doubt”, the French will go to the polls this Sunday, June 30, and next July 7 in order to elect their future deputies. At the end of the vote, a Prime Minister will be appointed by the President of the Republic within the majority group in the National Assembly. He will then be responsible for forming a new government. In the meantime, France will continue to be led by the current executive.
While the fate of the country hangs in the balance regarding very uncertain legislative elections, the first round of which will be held this Sunday, June 30, and the second on July 7, the question of the new government, which will be formed following the vote, is already being asked.
This vague situation has already been experienced before in other countries in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, such as Belgium, Tunisia and Israel, following the dissolution of Parliament. A period after which some governments took months to see the light of day.
Belgium
An unprecedented crisis. In Belgium, the dissensions between the French-speaking and Dutch-speaking political parties have continued to grow. The tension between the two parties led to the resignation of Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme on 22 April 2010.
At the time, the crisis shook the government coalition composed of the French-speaking parties (Socialist Party, Reform Movement and Humanist Democratic Centre) and Flemish parties (Christian Democrats of the CDV and the liberals of the Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats).
At the origin of this crisis is the split in the electoral district of Brussels-Hal-Vilvoorde (BHV). This is a major point of contention between the French-speaking and Flemish communities of Belgium.
BHV is indeed 90% French-speaking but is landlocked in Flemish territory. As a result, the Flemish parties demanded the split of this electoral district in order to separate their voters from French-speaking sympathisers. For their part, the French-speaking parties opposed this split.
Tensions between the two linguistic communities made governance of the country extremely difficult and the Open VLD ended up leaving the government coalition.
Weakened, Prime Minister Yves Leterme then presented his resignation in April 2010 and called early legislative elections for June 13, 2010. The latter did not make it possible to form a government, due in particular to the serious institutional and political crisis which affected the country, Belgium ultimately remained 289 days without a government before the executive was established in December 2010.
Italy
Even more recently, Italy experienced a serious political crisis in July 2022 following the loss of political support within Mario Draghi’s government coalition. The immediate trigger of this crisis was the withdrawal of the 5 Star Movement (M5S) during a vote of confidence on a package of economic measures. It is one of the main parties in the Italian Prime Minister’s coalition.
But the uncertain situation did not stop, and even grew worse, when other parties in the government coalition withdrew their support in a crucial confidence vote in the Senate, such as Matteo Salvini’s Lega (League) and Forza Italia of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who died on June 12, 2023.
The fragmentation within the coalition has weakened Mario Draghi’s position, as he no longer has the majority needed to implement the government’s plan. Finding himself in an impasse, Mario Draghi then presented his resignation to Italian President Sergio Mattarella on July 21, 2022, and called new elections.
The latter were won by the Fratelli d’Italia party of Giorgia Meloni, subsequently appointed president of the Italian Council of Ministers on October 22, 2022.
From July to October, for a period of three months, Mario Draghi’s government remained in place to manage current affairs until the appointment of Giorgia Meloni to Palazzo Chigi.
Tunisia
Cradle of the Arab Spring in 2011, Tunisia has long suffered politically. Ten years later, the social climate has once again reached a critical point, in 2021.
At a time when demonstrations against the government were occurring one after the other and the health and economic crisis, due to Covid-19, was continuing, President Kaïs Saïed decided, on July 25, 2021, to invoke article 80 of the Constitution in order to temporarily suspend Parliament and lift the immunity of deputies, requesting at the same time, the questioning of several political leaders, in particular those of the Islamist-inspired party Ennahdha, whom he considered as “his pet peeve “.
Among the deputies arrested, some were prosecuted or convicted for various offenses and crimes including tax fraud, fraud, suspicion of corruption, conflict of interest and even sexual harassment, according to the NGO I Watch.
What was supposed to be a “clean-up operation” quickly turned into a coup. Without deputies or Prime Minister, Tunisia has shifted towards an ultra-presidential regime. Only one person could govern: the President of the Republic.
Following this dissolution, Kaïs Saïed took measures to concentrate executive, legislative, and judicial powers in his hands, announcing his intention to modify the Constitution and reform the country’s political system.
On September 21 of the same year, the suspension of Parliament was extended. In December 2021, Kaïs Saïed announced a timetable for the revision of the Constitution and the organization of new legislative elections for December 2022.
Meanwhile, a transitional government was established on October 11, 2021 by Kaïs Saïed and Najla Bouden was appointed as Prime Minister. As a result, for a period of two months, from late July to mid-October, Tunisia operated without a fully functioning government.
Israel
Same observation in Israel. The inability of the government coalition to adopt a budget and the persistent internal conflicts between the partners of this union led to a period of political doubt in the Jewish state, causing the dissolution of the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, in December 2020.
First, you should know that, according to Israeli law, the Knesset automatically dissolves if the budget is not adopted. And it was exactly because of the failure of the negotiations that Parliament was dissolved.
Indeed, the coalition government, formed in May 2020 between Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) and Hosen L’Yisrael (Benny Gantz) called the Blue and White Party, led by the respective Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, could not agree on the budget. For the record, Benny Gantz had also led the coalition during the 2019 legislative elections, against the promise of the post of Minister of Defense made by Benjamin Netanyahu.
It should be noted that this coalition itself was weakened by personal and political tensions between Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz. The latter continued to accuse the Israeli Prime Minister of deliberately sabotaging efforts to adopt the budget in order to provoke legislative elections.
According to Benny Gantz, these allowed Benjamin Netanyahu to strengthen his political position. Faced with this blockage and these disagreements between the two parties, the situation became tense and the Knesset was finally dissolved.
Legislative elections were held in March 2021. During this time, Israel operated without a fully functioning government. We had to wait until June 13, 2021 to see the new government, led by Naftali Bennett, be sworn in.
