At 8 p.m. Sunday (2 p.m. in Montreal), television channels and polling institutes will publish their estimates of the results of the different political forces competing in the first round of legislative elections in France.
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Based on these estimates, projections in terms of seats on what the National Assembly could be like after the second round will also be released. But these projections should be read with caution, because the electoral rules and the dynamics between the two rounds contain many unknowns.
AFP
Here’s what you need to know to better understand these results:
The participation
This is a key figure. Participation was 47.5% in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections, it should be 63% on Sunday according to the Ipsos polling institute and 67%, according to IFOP in its latest daily survey on the vote, published Friday.
This figure will have a direct impact on the proportion of the 577 deputies who will be elected in the first round and also on the number of potential triangulars, or even quadrangulars which will take place in the second round, on July 7. These confrontations between three, or even four candidates, are a source of uncertainty as to the outcome of the election.
Those elected to 1is tour
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must obtain an absolute majority of votes cast, as well as the votes of at least a quarter of the voters registered in the constituency.
In 2022, only five deputies were elected in the first round. The leader of the RN, Marine Le Pen, or the current coordinator of La France Insoumise, Manuel Bompard, had obtained an absolute majority in the first round, but had to contest a second round, not having reached the threshold of 25% of registered voters.
Sunday evening, dozens of deputies could be elected in the first round, up to 80 or 100, mostly National Rally candidates, according to electoral experts.
The triangulars
The high turnout will also affect another threshold imposed by the electoral code: it is necessary to have collected the votes of 12.5% of registered voters to be able to remain in the second round.
There were only eight triangulars in 2022. According to Brice Teinturier, deputy president of Ipsos, this time there will be potentially up to 200 to 250 triangulars in the second round.
The number of possible quadrangulars is difficult to predict, but it should remain very low.
Disclaimers
The large number of potential triangular contests makes the issue of vote transfers and withdrawals all the more crucial.
AFP
Socialists, ecologists and communists called for the withdrawals of the least well-placed candidates – from the left, from the Macronist camp, or from the right-wing Les Républicains party – in order to block the National Rally.
The Macronist camp and La France insoumise (LFI) have not yet taken a clear position on withdrawals, but promise instructions as of Sunday evening. The current presidential majority is particularly hesitant to withdraw its representatives in favor of rebellious candidates in the name of a principle of “neither RN nor LFI.”
Very short deadlines
In this campaign, which has been conducted at a brisk pace since the dissolution of the National Assembly by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9, the deadlines are extremely short. And the parties will have to make up their minds very quickly.
The contenders will have until Tuesday 6 p.m. to submit their application file to the prefecture, with a view to the second round next Sunday.
