The surge in electricity was fueled by that of gas in 2022, but also by reactor breakdowns specific to France. Downstream of the market, the European Commission has regulated aid paid to sensitive industries, whose production has still not recovered.
Until then reserved for circles of technicians, the subtleties of the electricity market have caused controversy from the end of 2021. At the heart of the criticism is a mechanism which amplifies the influence of gas power plants: when they are called as a last resort to satisfy demand, their tariff applies to all energy sold on the European stock exchange. However, the price of fuel exploded in mid-2022, when Russia closed the taps that were pouring it into Europe.
However, the surge in electron consumption was fueled by another factor, this time specific to France: the shutdown of numerous nuclear reactors in the face of suspicions of corrosion, which generated a strong “risk premium” linked to fears. of cuts. As a result, contracts making it possible to secure deliveries (known as “forward”) have become much more expensive in France than among our neighbors, from May 2022. These transactions determine the level of fixed price offers, which guarantee a stable cost over a certain period, as well as the regulated EDF tariff.
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If European liberalization is not to blame for the setbacks of our reactors, it has undoubtedly amplified the implications, by favoring the disappearance of means of production. “ Many gas and coal power plants closed in the 2010s, because market prices were too low to remunerate investments. », recalls Jacques Percebois, director of the Center for Research in Energy Economics and Law (CREDEN). Enough to fuel fears of cuts when the crisis arrives, and therefore the “risk premium” which has inflated French prices.
Supervised aid
In fact, bills also depend on the regulation put in place by the State, which can dissociate the cost for the consumer from market prices. The government was thus able to cap the increase in EDF’s regulated tariff, through its “tariff shield”. Thanks to this mechanism, household bills have increased less than the cost of our electricity supply in 2022.
However, the dynamic was reversed the following year: while our production costs fell thanks to the restarting of the reactors, the regulated price has only increased until today. Within its current amount, decided in February by the government, the energy supplied is estimated at around 130 euros per MWh. As of last year, the French production cost had fallen to around 75 euros per MWh, according to an analysis by the analysis firm S&P Global sent to Marianne. At issue in this discrepancy: the formula used by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), which is based on the electron prices observed over the last two years… thus going back to the peaks reached at the end of 2022.
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On the business side, public support has been supervised by the European Commission, which ensures that subsidies do not distort competition. France took full advantage of the latitude left by Brussels, but this was not enough to cushion the shock for the most electricity-hungry industries. Between 2021 and 2023, steel production, for example, fell by 26.2% according to INSEE. And barely recovered at the start of 2024, remaining 20.8% below its level three years ago. Production rates also remain at half mast in our chemical (-13.8% compared to the start of 2021) and paper and cardboard (-9.8%) factories. Will they one day return to their pre-crisis low point?
