Survey carried out online of June 9 to 10, 2024, after the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President of the Republic and the calling of early legislative elections. Sample of 2,744 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 2,340 persons registered on the electoral lists. Quota method and adjustment applied to the following variables: sex, age, socio-professional category, region and previous electoral behavior of the interviewee.
Paris, June 10,
Following the result of the 2024 European elections and the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly leading to the holding of early legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, Toluna Harris Interactive, in association with Challenges, M6 and RTL have produced a survey of voting intentions for these 2024 legislative elections, in order to carry out a projection at the headquarters of the new National Assembly. Remember that at present these voting intentions are based on the hypothesis of a single offer presented in all constituencies, applications being open until Sunday June 16.
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What to retain from this investigation ?
The National Rally could almost double its score achieved during the 2022 legislative elections. After having collected 31.4% of the votes during the European elections, 34% of voters currently indicate that they would vote for a candidate supported by the National Rally on 1er round of legislative elections.
To the leftthe hypothesis of a union between rebellious France, the Communist Party, the Socialist Party and the Ecologists would attract 22% of voterswhich would represent a decline of 3 or 4 points compared to that measured on 1er round of the 2022 legislative elections (compensated by an increase in other left-wing candidates, outside the alliance). The current presidential majority would present itself as the 3th political force with 19% of the votes, far from the result of 2022 (25.8%).
Finally, Les Républicains would collect 9% of the votes and Reconquête 4%.
We saw it in 2022, between balances of power of 1er turn and the composition of the hemicycle at the end of the election there may be differences linked to the voting method (single-member majority with two rounds per constituency) and to the electoral behavior adopted in this context, particularly in the second round. When we try this exercise, always a bit theoretical when it is carried out before a first round and the very day after the announcement of the holding of these elections, we are designing an Assembly with very different contours from the 16th legislature.
The National Rally would experience major growth in the number of its deputies. With 235 to 265 seats, the National Rally would become the leading political force in the National Assembly and would increase its contingent of deputies by more than 150 (today 89). It would approach, without reaching it, the bar of 289 deputies necessary to have an absolute majority. The current presidential majority could lose almost half the number of its deputies (between 125 to 155 seats against 249), and could face competition in number from NUPES, which would retain between 115 and 145 seats. (a decline compared to the 153 deputies at the end of the 2022 legislative elections). The Republicans (and Various Right) would finally see their number reduced by around thirty units (between 40 and 55 deputies compared to 74).
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