Jill Biden has rarely been so overworked. Since Thursday evening, the first lady of the United States has been in the oven and at the mill, ardent defender of a husband who appears very weakened. Dressed in a dark blue dress on which the word “ vote“, she tried, the day after the debate with Donald Trump, to galvanize a crowd of voters who came to listen to her husband speak in Raleigh (North Carolina). And to make them forget his poor performance the day before, where the octogenarian was unable to spare viewers from his lost looks and his stammered answers, during a first failed presidential debate. “ You did a great job, you answered all the questions “, continued to praise the president’s wife, firmly determined not to throw in the towel. Is she pretending not to see that the boat is taking on water?
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A wind of panic is blowing over the Democratic Party, plunged into a historic leadership crisis, and of which Biden’s physical weakness, impossible to conceal, is the fuse. Internally, we are already talking about finding a replacement to avoid suffering a monumental defeat at the beginning of November. The hallway whispers urging Biden to forgo a second match turned into explicit pleas. “ A serious movement to remove it from the ticket is emergingconfirms opinion pollster John Zogby. Politically, Thursday night’s failure is enough to suggest the end of the road for Biden. “It would still be necessary for these appeals to reach the president, behind the protective wall formed by his campaign team and beyond the watchdog grip of Jill Biden.
“The President has a cold”
This bankruptcy is the Democratic Party’s own doing, explains historian Tristan Cabello, professor at Johns Hopkins University: “ It is his responsibility that is engaged. “The current head of state has never bothered to cultivate a nursery of young leading men and only brought his vice president out of the closet at the start of this year’s campaign. Elected in 2020 on the promise of being a bridge out of Trumpian chaos, the man still presents himself as the only bulwark capable of resisting a populist eager for authoritarianism. Biden atomized any possible competition by sitting out the primaries this winter, and the rest of the clan followed. ” There is a tradition of deference among them: they always stick to their candidate, for better or for worse. », deciphers Michael Baharaeen, political analyst for the political information site The Liberal Patriot.
In the ostrich position, Joe Biden’s advisors continued to coach him as if nothing had happened. It was a matter of being gentle with the candidate, of avoiding him having to confront the press, of arranging his schedule… And of always finding a temporary excuse in the face of the videos highlighting his feverish approach and his repeated stammering. “ The president has a cold “, his communicators went so far as to say on Thursday evening, at the end of his pitiful television appearance opposite a slanderous Donald Trump, wound up as a cuckoo.
Barack Obama also stepped up to defend his former partner, downplaying his disastrous performance by citing his own oratorical failure in 2012 against Republican Mitt Romney. Outgoing presidents are generally less convincing when they first enter the ring. But Joe Biden’s fall on Thursday night was unparalleled. It’s hard to watch a man deteriorate in front of you for an hour and a half », sighs John Zogby about the sequence.
Casting ouvert
The press, unanimously, fell on the candidate. In a murderous editorial published Friday evening, the New York Times, historic support of the blues, calls on the president to withdraw from the race. “ This is the greatest service he can render to his country. » to hope « save democracy “, pleads the “Grey Lady”, as journalists nickname the famous daily. On the political side, Biden’s allies are not taking other paths. ” He had a task to accomplish, which was to reassure America by showing that he was still capable of doing this job despite his age, and he failed. “, exclaimed former Democratic senator Claire McCaskill on Fox News. Determined to bail out the bottom of the boat, lawyer and civil rights activist Van Jones looks to the horizon: “ There is still time for this party to take another path if it allows us to do so. “, he said on the CNN set.
Who could step up to the plate and act as a white knight? There is Kamala Harris, the country’s current number two, who has been in the same boat as Joe Biden since he decided to run again. The business magazine Fortune points out that the Biden-Harris pair had nearly $212 million in donations at the end of May, and that the latter would have to stay on the ticket so that the Democrats can inject the money into a potential new campaign. But the connection is not self-evident and other names are circulating. That of Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, is on everyone’s lips. The rising star of the Democratic Party would like to be a candidate in 2028; perhaps she will have to get into the saddle earlier. Josh Shapiro, who leads Pennsylvania, another key state, is also a favorite. Their colleague Gavin Newsom, in California, was also portrayed as Biden’s heir in the fall, before the latter decided to cut short the desire for a primary. Among the more unexpected, but widely reported, options is Hillary Clinton, the candidate defeated by Donald Trump in 2020.
He had a task: to reassure America that he was still capable of doing the job despite his age, and he failed.
Claire McCaskill, former Democratic senator
« It would take someone who is a virgin, not associated with the Biden administration. “, Tristan Cabello pushes. Andy Beshear, head of Kentucky, is a little more conservative and especially less known, which could work in his favor. On the other hand, a more left-wing personality, breaking with the current position of the White House on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, would be an outstretched hand to young people, this vast electoral windfall that Joe Biden is losing because of his uncontested support for Netanyahu’s Israel. Voters hate the idea of having to choose between Trump and Biden again so much that another proposition could appeal to many », argues analyst Michael Baharaeen.
If the casting were to be reshuffled, it would have to be done as soon as possible because the Democratic National Convention will endorse its champion at the end of August. The leader of the Donkey party is stubborn, and assures that he will not deviate from the race. “ We have not had any discussion about this. ” says a spokesperson for his campaign. Is the mule the new emblem of the party?
Scenarios to replace it
Even if Joe Biden has ruled out withdrawing, the question of a change of candidate has been raised again in the Democratic camp. There are several scenarios, before or after the November election, and the January 2025 inauguration, more or less easy to implement depending on the period.
Before the August convention
The easiest way to replace Joe Biden, if he agrees to step down, is to do so during the Democratic convention, August 19-22 in Chicago. The delegate votes Biden won in the primary would be put back into play. The 3,900 delegates would choose another candidate in what would be called an “open convention.” Multiple candidates could then compete in a sort of mini-campaign, with multiple rounds of voting and political maneuvering.
Before the November election
If Biden drops out of the race after the convention but before the November election, the party’s national committee, meeting in special session, would nominate a replacement.
Before the vote of the big electors in December
The most troubled period to replace Joe Biden is between the election in November of the voters (the vote is in fact indirect in the United States) and the vote of these electors in December to elect the President. No procedure is planned to replace the candidate.
Before or after the January 2025 inauguration
If Biden is elected in November but incapacitated before his inauguration in January or later, the Constitution provides that the vice president becomes president.
