Will Donald Trump abandon Ukraine? During his campaign, the Republican candidate increased criticism of the billions of dollars in military and financial aid paid to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. It is difficult in these conditions not to read his promise to end the war “in twenty-four hours” as a prospect of letting go from his inauguration in January.
It is also impossible to ignore the video republished Sunday on Instagram by Donald Jr., the eldest son of the future president, showing a disgruntled Zelensky under this mocking caption: “ POV (point of view, Editor’s note) : you are thirty-eight days away from losing your benefits. »
The prospect is enough to alarm kyiv. Since the first months of the Russian invasion, Russia has never advanced so quickly on the battlefield, upsetting in the Donbass the defense lines of a Ukrainian army which lacks men and is struggling to stabilize the situation. If the Ukrainian retreat takes place in a more or less orderly manner, and inflicts heavy losses on Russia, the dynamic is no less gloomy for Ukraine. “With the political situation deteriorating, the Russians know they have a window of opportunity to force Ukraine to negotiatesays on X Vincent Tourret, a specialist in Russian military doctrine. This is also why their losses are so high: they have increased the pace of their assaults. »
Carrots and sticks
Until Donald Trump returns to business, Ukraine is counting on the Biden administration to send it as quickly as possible up to $6 billion in military equipment, leftover from the gigantic aid package adopted in April by the American Congress. And after? Mystery. For kyiv, the coming winter presents itself as an equation with three unknowns: the resolution of Europeans to take over; the way in which the Americans intend to bring Ukraine to negotiate; and the success or otherwise of these negotiations.
Europeans have provided considerable financial support to Ukraine since the invasion began, but lag behind in military aid. “The problem is not Europe's industrial capacity, but the willingness to financeestimates Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations. I see that we could have done much better in three years. Last year there was already an interruption of American aid, and we have not seen the Europeans get up to speed. Our shell production has increased, but purchasing new equipment for Ukraine continues to be complicated. »
The shock caused by the election of Donald Trump encourages Europeans to increase their financing efforts, but they must manage a constrained economic context and the risks of division. Other avenues are being studied, in particular to repay budgets already adopted or to broaden their vocation in order to finance defense projects: this would notably be the case of cohesion funds, initially planned for the development of the less prosperous regions of the continent, according to information from Financial Times.
“The hardest winter”
Second subject of question: the method that Donald Trump will choose to bring Russia and Ukraine to negotiate. The idea relayed by Donald Trump Jr. to punitively cut Ukraine's “allocations” would be terrible for kyiv. It is not the only possible option. The appointment of Mike Waltz to the very influential post of National Security Advisor should give kyiv hope that Washington will instead use a mixture of carrots and sticks to push the belligerents to talk to each other.
The elected Republican from Florida recently defended The Economist stronger sanctions against Russia, even new arms deliveries to kyiv, to push Moscow towards the negotiating table. But uncertainty remains strong, with the appointment on Wednesday November 13 as head of American intelligence of Tulsi Gabbard, a former soldier known for her statements favorable to Russia.
Moreover, nothing says that the negotiations will succeed. Besides the fact that the positions of kyiv and Moscow are irreconcilable, it is not guaranteed that Russia and the United States can find common ground. The Kremlin has no interest in a ceasefire, which would offer respite to a struggling Ukrainian army. Moscow will not be satisfied with territorial concessions either, Vladimir Putin's strategic objective being the political subjugation of Ukraine – incompatible with the granting of serious security guarantees to kyiv.
Sterile talks could then lead the Queens tycoon to resume aid to Ukraine, given that the Europeans assume a greater share of the burden. A “deal” that Donald Trump could present as a winner to his voters.
Until then, and whatever the outcome of the diplomatic quadrille that will be played out between the United States, Europe, Ukraine and Russia, the Ukrainian army will have to deal with an increasingly shortfall of men. more glaring. The recruitment objectives of recent months have not been achieved, and the government is reluctant to mobilize men under 25 for fear of the unpopularity of this measure, which worsens the situation on the front. At the rear, kyiv will have to protect its energy network at all costs on the verge of collapse from a new campaign of Russian strikes. For Ukraine, warns NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, it will be “the hardest winter”.
