the ecologists of Marie Toussaint below 5%, Jordan Bardella far ahead

POLITICS – Red alert for the Greens. She herself fears the nightmare scenario, that of a disappearance of her camp in the European Parliament where it has been present for 40 years. The latest wave of voting intentions for the European elections carried out by the YouGov institute that HuffPost published this Friday, June 7, gives even more depth to the fear of Marie Toussaint.

The list of Environmentalists she leads is credited with only 4% in our survey. A score down by one point over a month (five since the start of the year) which, if it were to be the same Sunday June 9 at the polls would not allow us to have elected representatives in the European Parliament. “It’s a risk that’s very present in my mind”she said this Thursday again in Release.

Above all, it would be a disillusionment for a party which, five years ago, created a surprise by jumping to third place (13.5% of the votes) in the wake of Yannick Jadot. “This is the reason why I will call, until the end, on people who think that ecology is essential to mobilize”she said again in Release. The outgoing MEP has a few hours left of the campaign to mobilize her camp and avoid defeat.

In our survey, it is more the breakthrough of the Animalist Party list (3%, +2) or even the progress of the communist Léon Deffontaines (3%, +1) than the Glucksmann dynamic and the prospect of a useful vote which seems to cost points to Marie Toussaint. For the first time since the start of the year, the PS-Place Publique candidate is not making progress. On the contrary, he even lost a point at 12% of voting intentions.

Hayer-Bardella gap has never been greater

However, he has never been so close to Valérie Hayer, the presidential majority candidate. Because the decline of the Macronist camp is confirmed month after month. Down two points for this latest wave (five since January), it is given at only 15%. Another consequence of this fall, the gap with the leader is greater than ever. Seventeen points separate Valérie Hayer from Jordan Bardella, head of the National Rally list, still credited in June with 32% of voting intentions. If he achieved such a score on Sunday, the extreme evening candidate would reach a record that no camp has reached since 1984.

In view of our final poll published two days before the election, three other lists are above this famous 5% bar: that of Manon Aubry for France Insoumise and that of François-Xavier Bellamy for the Republicans who are stable at 6% and that of Marion Maréchal for Reconquête which lost one point at 5%.

The survey was carried out on 1,035 people representative of the French national population aged 18 and over registered on the electoral lists. The survey was carried out online, on the proprietary YouGov France panel from May 31 to June 5, 2024.

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