Will the National Rally celebrate a total victory next Sunday? While the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen came out well ahead of the first round of the early legislative elections on Sunday with more than 34% of the vote, several seat projections on the future composition of the National Assembly predict a majority. relative, or even absolute (i.e. 289 deputies or more out of a total of 577) for one of them.
These polling institutes predict between 230 and 310 seats for them. According to Ipsos, Jordan Bardella’s party and its allies led by Eric Ciotti would have a relative majority of 230 to 280 seats, and 240 to 270 seats according to Ifop, while Elabe foresees the possibility of an absolute majority with 260 to 310 far-right deputies, as does OpinionWay with a range of 250 to 300 elected representatives.
If this were to be the case, Jordan Bardella could enter Matignon. It would be the first time since the Second World War that a government from the extreme right would lead France. The president of the RN warned that he would only accept the post of Prime Minister if his party holds an absolute majority.
Otherwise, the risk of a blocked Assembly, with no possibility of an alliance between very polarized camps, is real, a scenario which would plunge France into the unknown.
The NFP, the main opposition group?
Friday, the last Odoxa-Mascaret poll before the first round for The New Obs, the regional press and Public Senate, revealed a strong push from the RN. The far-right party, allied with Eric Ciotti’s LR, would collect between 265 to 305 seats (compared to 89 seats currently). The institute was, however, unable to indicate whether the far-right group would benefit from an absolute majority.
In this same projection, the New Popular Front would constitute the main opposition group with between 150 and 190 deputies, and the presidential majority would suffer a severe setback, winning between 70 and 110 seats (i.e. a loss of 140 to 180 seats).
