Legislative elections in Lisieux-Falaise: will the outgoing MP contain the RN wave?

Elected with 53.5% of the votes in 2022 against Martine Vilmet (National Rally), will Jérémie Patrier-Leitus keep his seat in the National Assembly? Nothing is less certain as competition has strengthened over the past two years.

The united left

The outgoing MP (presidential majority) must in particular contain the wave of the RN, represented this time by Édouard Fauvage, candidate two years ago under the Reconquête label, Eric Zemmour’s party.

For its part, the left, united behind the socialist Olivier Truffaut, will try to qualify for the second round.

Outsiders, Thierry-Paul Valette (Europe Équitable), Steven Mafiodo (Debout la France) and Michel Langevin (Lutte Ouvrière) should share the rest of the votes.

An invalidated application

This express campaign was marked by the invalidation of Nathalie Porte’s candidacy by the administrative court, following the last minute withdrawal of her deputy, Rémi Debard.

The LR vice-president of the Normandy Region accuses the outgoing MP of having put pressure on Rémi Debard to withdraw. What Jérémie Patrier-Leitus firmly denies. “It’s not my way of doing politics,” he assures.

The person concerned assures that he “never received pressure from anyone”. Who’s telling the truth? Still, since then, Nathalie Porte’s supporters have taken aim at the candidate of the presidential majority.

Will these tensions between two relatively close political movements (right and centre-right) have consequences on the results on Sunday? As a reminder, Nathalie Porte had collected 21.84% of the votes in 2022, missing out on reaching the second round by only 220 votes.

The RN has the wind at its back

The National Rally, which already has the wind at its back, could take advantage of this to establish its domination. Residing in Toulon (Var) but originally from Putanges (Orne), Édouard Fauvage, a 33-year-old Navy officer, hopes to ride on the good score of the far-right party in the European elections.

First in an immense majority of municipalities in the constituency, Jordan Bardella’s list collected 38% of the votes. If this tidal wave is confirmed, only the local dimension of the vote will be able to save Jérémie Patrier-Leitus.

Unknown before the 2022 legislative elections, this close friend of Edouard Philippe and Alain Juppé has been very present on the ground (and on social networks) for two years. He is now clearly identified by the inhabitants. Enough to be able to resist the RN?

The left aims for the second round

As in 2022, the left is leaving under the same banner. No more NUPES, now it’s time for the New Popular Front. This broad coalition has invested Olivier Truffaut, philosophy teacher at the Gambier high school in Lisieux and secretary of the Lisieux section of the Socialist Party.

Two years ago, the left missed the boat by finishing fourth in the first round, but with an honourable score of 21.44% of the vote for Didier Canu (LFI). The objective is to “do better” by reaching the second round.

To do this, it will probably be necessary to rank among the first two. In the event of a high turnout, the second round could result in a three-way race. And if it takes place, the question of withdrawing from the third round will arise, given the highly probable first place of the National Rally.

Three other competitors in ambush

Three other contenders are on the starting line. If they are not favorites, they intend to make their voice heard.

• Thierry-Paul Valette, 47, a former media figure of the Yellow Vests and founder of the Fair Europe party, is classed as a centre-left candidate. Accustomed to making big splashes, he spent the week sitting on a chair in front of the Lisieux Post Office to collect the residents’ grievances.
• Steven Mafiodo represents Nicolas Dupont-Aignan’s sovereignist party, Debout la France. This 31-year-old bailiff is running for the third time in the legislative elections. “On many points, our parties have similar values,” he recognizes, speaking of the National Rally.
• Finally, Michel Langevin is a regular at elections. Candidate Lutte Ouvrière, 63, is seeking voters’ votes for the fourth time in the legislative elections “to defend workers”.

The third constituency of Calvados brings together 107,000 inhabitants, from the southern Pays d’Auge and the Caen plain. Essentially rural, it also has two more urban sectors, in Lisieux and Falaise.

No women among the candidates

Around 80,000 registered voters are called to the polls on June 30 and July 7 to elect their future MP. One thing is certain, it will be a man. After the forced withdrawal of Nathalie Porte, there are no longer any women among the candidates.

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