Sunday evening, they will hit the track. Experts on the electoral map, to define where it is necessary to withdraw, to maintain oneself, to support the dissident or not, etc. Because these elections can be decided by a few seats: in 2022, Emmanuel Macron was only 39 short of having an absolute majority for five years. The situation today is very different: the presidential camp is far behind (19.5%), in our latest Ipsos survey of voting intentionsby the National Rally and its allies (credited with 36%) and the New Popular Front (29%). France Inter has therefore gone over the map with a fine-tooth comb and contacted many elected officials to arrive at this near-certainty: the majority will lose at least 120 deputies.
“Sunday there will be nothing to celebrate”
“I still have time to go light a candle in Lourdes, but I’m afraid it won’t change much”quips for example a deputy, who clearly senses the wave that will carry him away. “The start did not take place”concedes a close friend of the President. “Fear doesn’t benefit us and I don’t understand it.” In each region, we are already doing the accounts… “5, 6, and 10 lost in Haute-Garonne”, “1, 3, 6 folded in Calvados”, “1, 8, 9, 10 ruined in Isère”etc. And the list goes on, reaching 120 constituencies out of 250 where the presidential camp will, according to our estimate, disappear unless there is a big surprise.
In some departments, such as Charente-Maritime, the outgoing majority could disappear and lose the five constituencies in the territory. In Île-de-France, 20 seats are in danger, including four in Paris, six in Bouches-du-Rhône, four in Gironde. “The problem”analyzes a strategist, “the mobilization of our electorate often takes place in our strongholds, where there is no suspense”. Et “Sunday, there will be nothing to celebrate”admits a deputy… Besides, the presidential party is not organizing an election night. It will take place at everyone’s home, with its results.
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The list of constituencies
- Ain, 5th constituency: Damien ABAD
- Aisne, 3rd constituency: Jean-Louis BRICOUT
- Hautes-Alpes, 1st constituency: Pascale BOYER
- Hautes-Alpes, 2nd constituency: Joel GIRAUD
- Alpes-Maritimes, 3rd constituency: Philippe PRADAL
- Ardèche, 2nd constituency: Olivier DUSSOPT
- Ardennes, 1st constituency: Lionel VUIBERT
- Aube, 2nd constituency: Valérie BAZIN-MALGRAS
- Aveyron, 3rd constituency: Jean-François ROUSSET
- Bouches-du-Rhône, 1st constituency: Didier PARAKIAN
- Bouches-du-Rhône, 2nd constituency: Claire PITOLLAT
- Bouches-du-Rhône, 6th constituency: Lionel ROYER-PERREAUT
- Bouches-du-Rhône, 8th constituency: Jean-Marc ZULESI
- Bouches-du-Rhône, 11th constituency: Mohamed LAQHILA
- Calvados, 1st district: Fabrice LE VIGOUREUX
- Calvados, 3rd constituency: Jérémie PATRIER-LEITUS
- Calvados, 6e circonscription : Elisabeth BORNE
- Charente-Maritime, 1st constituency: Olivier FALORNI
- Charente-Maritime, 2nd constituency: Anne-Laure BABAULT
- Charente-Maritime, 3rd constituency: Jean-Philippe ARDOUIN
- Charente-Maritime, 4th constituency: Raphaël GERARD
- Charente-Maritime, 5th constituency: Christophe PLASSARD
- Côte-d’Or, 2nd constituency: Benoît BORDAT
- Côte-d’Or, 3rd constituency: Philippe FREI
- Côte-d’Or, 5th constituency: Didier PARIS
- Côtes-d’Armor, 5th constituency: Eric BOTHOREL
- Dordogne, 3rd constituency: Jean-Pierre CUBERTAFON
- Doubs, 1st constituency: Laurent CROIZIER
- Doubs, 2nd district: Eric ALAUZET
- Doubs, 3rd constituency: Nicolas PACQUOT
- Drôme, 1st district: Mireille CLAPOT
- Eure-et-Loir, 3rd constituency: Luc LAMIRAULT
- Eure-et-Loir, 4th constituency: Philippe VIGIER
- Finistère, 5th constituency: Graziella MELCHIOR
- Finistère, 7th constituency: Liliana TANGUY
- Finistère, 8th constituency: Erwan BALANANT
- South Corsica, 1st constituency: Laurent MARCANGELI
- Gard, 6th constituency: Philippe BERTA
- Haute-Garonne, 5th constituency: Jean-François PORTARRIEU
- Haute-Garonne, 6th constituency: Monique IBORRA
- Haute-Garonne, 10th constituency: Laurent ESQUENET
- Gers, 1st constituency: Jean-René CAZENEUVE
- Gironde, 6th constituency: Eric POULLIAT
- Gironde, 7th constituency: Bérangère COUILLARD
- Gironde, 10th constituency: Florent BOUDIÉ
- Gironde, 12th constituency: Pascal LAVERGNE
- Hérault, 1st constituency: Philippe SOREZ
- Hérault, 3rd constituency: Laurence CRISTOL
- Ille-et-Vilaine, 2nd constituency: Laurence MAILLART-MÉHAIGNERIE
- Indre-et-Loire, 4th constituency: Fabienne COLBOC
- Isère, 1st district: Olivier VÉRAN
- Isère, 8th constituency: Caroline ABADIE
- Isère, 9th constituency: Elodie JACQUIER-LAFORGE
- Isère, 10th constituency: Marjolaine MEYNIER-MILLEFERT
- Jura, 1st constituency: Danielle BRULEBOIS
- Landes, 2nd constituency: Lionel CAUSSE
- Loir-et-Cher, 3rd constituency: Christophe MARION
- Loire, 1st constituency: Quentin BATAILLON
- Loire-Atlantique, 1st constituency: Mounir BELHAMITI
- Loire-Atlantique, 9th constituency: Yannick HAURY
- Loire-Atlantique, 10th constituency: Sophie ERRANTE
- Loiret, 5th constituency: Anthony BROSSE
- Lot-et-Garonne, 1st constituency: Michel LAUZZANA
- Maine-et-Loire, 1st constituency: François GERNIGON
- Maine-et-Loire, 2nd constituency: Stella DUPONT
- Marne, 2nd constituency: Laure MILLER
- Meurthe-et-Moselle, 1st constituency: Carole GRANDJEAN
- Meurthe-et-Moselle, 2nd constituency: Emmanuel LACRESSE
- Moselle, 1st constituency: Belkhir BELHADDAD
- Nièvre, 1st constituency: Perrine GOULET
- Nièvre, 2nd district: Patrice PERROT
- North, 6th constituency: Charlotte PARMENTIER-LECOCQ
- Pas-de-Calais, 2nd constituency: Jacqueline MAQUET
- Pas-de-Calais, 4th constituency: Philippe FAIT
- Pas-de-Calais, 5th constituency: Jean-Pierre PONT
- Puy-de-Dôme, 3rd constituency: Laurence VICHNIEVSKY
- Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 1st constituency: Josy POUEYTO
- Bas-Rhin, 1st constituency: Sandra REGOL
- Bas-Rhin, 2nd constituency: Emmanuel FERNANDES
- Rhône, 1st district: Thomas RUDIGOZ
- Rhône, 7th constituency: Alexandre VINCENDET
- Rhône, 10th constituency: Thomas GASSILLOUD
- Rhône, 13th constituency: Sarah TANZILLI
- Saône-et-Loire, 3rd constituency: Rémy REBEYROTTE
- Saône-et-Loire, 5th constituency: Louis MARGUERITTE
- Sarthe, 1st constituency: Julie DELPECH
- Paris, 3rd constituency: Caroline YADAN
- Paris, 4th constituency: Astrid PANOSYAN-BOUVET
- Paris, 7th district: Clément BEAUNE
- Paris, 11th district: Maud GATEL
- Seine-Maritime, 1st constituency: Damien ADAM
- Seine-Maritime, 9th constituency: Marie-Agnès POUSSIER-WINSBACK
- Seine-Maritime, 10th constituency: Xavier BATUT
- Seine-et-Marne, 1st constituency: Aude LUQUET
- Seine-et-Marne, 5th constituency: Patricia LEMOINE
- Seine-et-Marne, 8th constituency: Hadrien GHOMI
- Seine-et-Marne, 9th constituency: Michèle PEYRON
- Deux-Sèvres, 1st district: Bastien MARCHIVE
- Tarn, 3rd constituency: Jean TERLIER
- Var, 1st district: Yannick CHENEVARD
- Vaucluse, 5th constituency: Jean-François LOVISOLO
- Vendée, 1st district: Philippe LATOMBE
- Vendée, 2nd constituency: Béatrice BELLAMY
- Vienna, 2nd constituency: Sacha HOULIÉ
- Vienna, 3rd constituency: Pascal LECAMP
- Vienna, 4th constituency: Nicolas TURQUOIS
- Vosges, 2nd constituency: David VALENCE
- Yonne, 2nd constituency: André VILLIERS
- Essonne, 3rd constituency: Alexis IZARD
- Essonne, 5th constituency: Paul MIDY
- Essonne, 7th constituency: Robin REDA
- Essonne, 9th constituency: Eric HUSSON
- Val-de-Marne, 4th constituency: Maud PETIT
- Val-de-Marne, 5th district: Mathieu LEFEVRE
- Val-de-Marne, 6th constituency: Guillaume GOUFFIER-CHA
- Val-d’Oise, 1st constituency: Emilie CHANDLER
- Val-d’Oise, 2nd constituency: Guillaume VUILLETET
- Val-d’Oise, 3rd constituency: Cécile RILHAC
- Val-d’Oise, 4th constituency: Naïma MOUTCHOU
- Val-d’Oise, 7th constituency: Dominique DA SILVA
