INTERVIEW. Covid-19: “The peak could be reached this summer around the end of July, or even mid-August”, estimates an epidemiologist

The latest report from Public Health France reveals a slight resumption of viral circulation. Can we talk about a new wave of Covid?

Yes, throughout Europe, we see the indicators rising testifying to the increase in the circulation of the coronavirus. Wastewater monitoring was the earliest indicator to turn red, several weeks ago already, then now visits to emergency rooms, consultations with general practitioners, and even hospitalizations. It is still too early to predict the scale of this new wave but there is now no doubt that a fairly powerful wave of Covid is forming in France and Europe.

Are hospital services ready?

We experienced a fairly similar phenomenon last year at the same time and we did not have to deal with new saturation of hospitals. We are therefore not at all in the worrying situation at the start of the pandemic.

When is the peak expected?

The peak of an epidemic is always difficult to predict, but we can think that we are only at the very beginning of the phenomenon which could extend for another eight to twelve weeks. So the peak could be reached this summer around the end of July or even mid-August.

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The summer season will not succeed in slowing the spread of the virus?

Yes, summer represents a perceptible brake on all respiratory infections. That said, unlike the flu, Covid is due to a much more transmissible virus and this brake is not enough to avoid summer epidemic waves, as we are currently seeing. Summer seems to be associated with less severity of Covid, perhaps because the viral load is less strong, thanks to better ventilation of premises, more social relations outdoors, fewer schools open, less urban transport. crowded.

Is it the arrival of a new variant that can explain this outbreak?

Each wave of Covid has always been caused by the emergence of one or more new variants of SARS-CoV-2. That of summer 2024 which is coming is no exception to the rule, it concerns several sub-variants of Omicron, including JN.1, KP.2 and KP.3. Some European countries like Spain and Portugal see KP.3 predominate, others, like France, KP.2, still in the same line.

What are the particularities of this new “FliRt” variant?

New variants during a Covid wave emerge precisely because their mutations allow them to escape the immunity previously acquired by the population. This is of course the case for FLiRT mutations in this family of new variants. Otherwise, we do not report any notable particularities, neither in terms of the symptoms they cause, nor in terms of severity. It is possible, however, that during this summer’s wave we will discover new, rarer symptoms; this sometimes happens, particularly with variants of which we still have little experience.

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So for now, the symptoms of Covid are still the same?

Yes, it is a flu syndrome that is sometimes quite marked, but most often without signs of clinical seriousness. Infected patients may experience a cough for several days or even a degree of shortness of breath without the need for hospitalization. Frail people, that is to say very old people, or immunocompromised people, but also pregnant women and their infants can develop complications and serious forms which require hospitalization.

What about the other variants today?

This may come as a surprise, but the other variants have completely given way to the newcomers. The previous variants have faded from the Covid epidemiological landscape in favor of the new ones. So only Omicron remains since 2022, which has supplanted all previous variants. Since the emergence of Omicron, more than two thousand sub-variants have emerged around the world, the latest being KP2 and KP.3 which are already generating new sub-sub-variants in turn (for example KP. 3.1.1).

Concerning the Olympics, is there a risk that it will turn into a giant cluster?

The Paris Olympic Games this summer will probably take place at the heart of this summer’s wave of SARS-CoV-2 contaminations. The influx of visitors could then encourage the occurrence of clusters. Within the Olympic Village the problem will be less of a health nature than of a sporting nature. We do not really fear the occurrence of serious forms in most young athletes in good physical condition, however the symptoms of mild Covid are sufficiently disabling to be able to compromise the athletes’ performances if they have competitions at the same time. More than ever, good indoor air quality, correctly monitored continuously and wearing an FFP2 mask can reduce the risks of transmission in the event of high viral circulation.