At the start of January 2025, oil prices reach peaks not seen in months. Brent, the European benchmark, stabilized at $76.51 per barrel, while American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $73.96. These increases are causing increasing concern in the economic and energy sectors, with direct repercussions on fuel prices.
A market under tension: the drivers of the increase
The decline in crude oil inventories in the United States was a major trigger. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), commercial reserves fell to a historically low level for the start of the year, with a decline of 3.6% compared to January 2024. This contraction of the offer is part of a context where global demand, particularly in Asia and Europe, remains strong.
At the same time, the post-pandemic economic recovery, particularly visible in China, is generating increased demand for hydrocarbons. China’s manufacturing industry is returning to full capacity, supported by economic recovery policies, increasing overall energy consumption.
International tensions and energy policies
Persistent tensions in the Middle East, a strategic region for oil production and transport, are amplifying investors’ fears. Recent clashes in Syria and uncertainties over the stability of supplies are increasing market volatility.
Furthermore, climatic conditions contribute to maintaining the pressure. A forecast cold snap in North America could boost demand for energy products, although this effect will be more noticeable on natural gas prices than on crude oil prices.
In the United States, political outlooks also influence markets. The imminent inauguration of a government favorable to the fossil industry suggests a potential increase in production, but also strengthened demand in the short term.
Impact on consumers: immediate consequences
In France, the repercussions of the rise in oil prices are already visible. The average price of a liter of diesel is 1,84 euroswhile unleaded 95 reaches 1,88 euros at many gas stations. These increases, although expected, weigh heavily on household budgets.
For motorists, each increase of 10 cents per liter represents an additional cost of around 120 euros per year for average use. Low-income households, particularly those living in rural areas, are most impacted due to limited access to transport alternatives.
Transportation and logistics companies, heavily dependent on fossil fuels, pass these increases on to their customers, increasing the costs of consumer goods. This situation could contribute to widespread inflation in several sectors, notably food and distribution.
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