The actions undertaken by States, but also their promises, are not up to the task of respecting the commitments of the Paris Agreement by 2030.
This article is taken from the monthly Sciences et Avenir n°935, dated January 2025.
The 2024 report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the gap between needs and prospects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is unequivocal: “A gap between rhetoric and reality“. The actions undertaken by States, but also their promises, are not up to the task of respecting the commitments of the Paris Agreement by 2030, of securing a possible stabilization of global warming in the 21st century, and of limit the associated risks.
The COP29 in Baku (Azerbaijan) should have served as a springboard to increase climate ambition ahead of the COP30 in Brazil, which will mark the five-year review of the commitments at the heart of the 2015 Paris Agreement. on the contrary, in line with the three previous COPs, with no progress on updating commitments since COP26 in Glasgow (Scotland). The indicators do not lie: global greenhouse gas emissions set a new record at 57.1 billion tonnes of CO equivalent21.3% more than in 2022.
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They are boosted by the use of fossil fuels for electricity production, the very strong increase in air and road transport, methane leaks linked to fossil fuels, among others. Unsurprisingly, the global temperature level follows: 2024 will most likely cross the threshold of 1.5 degrees in one year.
The UNEP report highlights the responsibility of G20 countries in financing investments in favor of mitigation. They must be multiplied by at least six, i.e. an amount of around 900 to 2,100 billion dollars per year between 2021 and 2050. For comparison, the world economy and financial markets represent 110,000 billion dol[…]
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