The weather in July, August and September should be warmer than normal for the season according to Météo-France

WEATHER – Olympics, summer holidays and back to school. Like every month, Météo-France revealed this Friday, June 28, the weather trends for the next three months in France. With only one certainty: this quarter, confidence remains “limited ».

For this new exercise, Météo-France therefore presented its scenarios for the months of July, August and September. The French meteorology and climatology service estimates in this regard that “ warmer than normal conditions » will be slightly more likely during this period in France.

On the temperature side, the ” scenario of a warmer than normal quarter » is therefore envisaged, where the south of France should logically be more affected.

According to these probabilities, the public institution in charge of weather monitoring indicates that there is a 50% chance that it will be warmer than seasonal norms (70% for the south of France), compared to a 30% chance of a summer in line with seasonal norms, which have recently changed. On the other hand, there is only a 20% chance that the thermometer will display temperatures lower than those usually recorded at this time of year.

On the precipitation side, a subject that will necessarily interest after a start to the summer season far from the usual standards, the scenario of a dry summer is ” privileged ” at this stage by forecasters. ” This slightly more likely scenario applies on a quarterly scale and does not exclude occasional episodes with rainfall that could be locally significant. “, warned Météo-France.

However, this scenario only considers the southern half of the country. No scenario is favoured at this stage for the northern half of the country, with a 33% chance of a wetter quarter, 33% for a quarter in line with seasonal norms and 33% for a drier summer.

Trends, not precise forecasts

As with each publication of a bulletin of major climate trends for the next three months, the French forecaster reminds that these data are not intended to “ provide information on the expected weather in France on a given day “, but rather of ” identify probabilistic trends on a European scale ».

This is why Météo-France indicates from the outset that confidence ” is limited » this quarter, and therefore mentions the end of the El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. And specifies that its scenario for the next three months takes into account a shift in disturbances towards the north over Western Europe, in conjunction with more frequent anticyclonic situations over south-west Europe.

To know if the drought will return to France or if the rain will come to disrupt the holidays during the summer period, we will still have to wait for more precise data.

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