By announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly on Sunday evening, after the first results of the European elections, Emmanuel Macron shook up the political agenda for the coming weeks. The Head of State gave the dates of the two rounds of the next legislative elections: June 30 for the first round, July 7 for the second.
What do the latest polls say about a possible early election? Last December, the observation was clear. On March 15, our colleagues at L’Obs revealed a poll, commissioned in “secret” by Les Républicains at the end of December, on the results that a new ballot would bring about in the event of the dissolution of the Assembly. This survey was conducted by the Ipsos institute between December 8 and 13, 2023, with a sample of 4,000 people.
The RN in the lead, fewer seats for the Nupes
According to the results of this poll, the elected representatives of the National Rally (RN) would win between 243 and 305 seats, compared to 89 currently. A hypothesis which could allow Jordan Bardella’s party to obtain an absolute majority in the hemicycle, set at 289 seats.
Still according to this survey, the RN would be alone in the lead, far ahead of the elected representatives of the presidential majority, who would only obtain between 117 and 165 seats, compared to 246 deputies elected in 2022. The Nupes, which had won 131 seats during of the last elections, would only have between 55 and 79 seats. On the right, among Les Républicains, there would be between 44 and 60 elected officials compared to 62 seats won in 2022.
The different parties now have three weeks to campaign. On Sunday evening, several figures from the left called for a “useful gathering” and announced that discussions would take place in the coming days. The top of the Reconquest list! Marion Maréchal, for her part, called for a union of the rights before this crucial election.
