Protesters gather as a man holds up a sign demanding that U.S. Army soldiers leave Niger in Niamey, April 13, 2024.
Atlantico: Since the September 11 attacks, the United States has sent troops and hundreds of millions of dollars to much of West Africa to help French forces stop the spread of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. What was the American strategy in West Africa?
Wolf Viallet: The United States has two main targets in the world: monitoring the actions of two governments that it considers unfavorable to its national interests, namely Russia and China. Their presence in Africa is closely linked to the expansion of the Russian presence. With Africom, their integrated military command for Africa headquartered in Germany, they have deployed a strategy called the “light footprint” on the continent.
If they have as many troops – or even more – than the French on the continent, they are trying not to be noticed and to avoid being subjected to anti-Western propaganda. So far, American troops have not been the subject of harsh criticism or protests in West Africa.
Their presence in Niger is linked to their desire to play a central role from a security point of view in the Sahel sub-region. They had built a very expensive and politically valuable base in Agadez. This base allowed them to monitor many sites of interest using satellites. As such, the Agadez base was a central surveillance point for the sub-region. This is why they have tried to stay since the putsch which saw Mohamed Bazoum imprisoned and replaced by Abdourahamane Tiani.
The American eviction from Niger marks a double failure:
– The failure of the “light footprint” strategy in Niger and the Sahel.
– The failure of their attempt to replace France in the region and to establish itself as policeman of the Sahel
The United States failed by imagining being able to be present with a country of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Niger, while the AES, notably Mali, is assisted by Russia through deliveries weapons, military trainers and the presence of Wagner who became Africa Corps.
What are the main reasons for the failure of American initiatives in West Africa?
This failure is linked to the ambivalence of the American posture. The United States has characterized Tchiani’s rise to power as the result of a coup while trying to preserve its relations with the new junta. This failure is a step in a latent global conflict between the West and powers hostile to it such as Russia or Turkey, which sent a thousand Syrian mercenaries belonging to the Turkish company “Sadat” there.
Russia and Turkey appear to be life insurance for these juntas, something the United States did not represent. The interest of the Russians and Turks is to secure sources of supply of strategic minerals and raw materials, to extend their area of influence, to conquer new markets. The presence of the Russians in Mali is closely linked to the control of gold mines, and their presence in Niger is now increasingly linked to the exploitation of uranium mines previously exploited by the French group Orano.
What are the consequences of this situation for the sub-region?
The consequences are multiple and significant. First of all, there is increased migratory pressure for all countries in the sub-region. The presence of Russia as life insurance for the juntas and their alliances gives a sort of legitimacy to the latter and guarantees their sustainability. Russia and Wagner (Africacorp), particularly in Mali, are becoming the armed wing of these regimes.
As a result, Wagner and the Malian armed forces (FAMA) seek to oust, destroy, or even massacre the Tuaregs and Fulani, historically in conflict with the ethnic groups in power. This is causing massive displacements of populations in West Africa and North African countries, destabilizing their immediate environment and creating diplomatic tensions.
Neighboring countries such as Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Benin are fortifying their borders and preparing to manage these migratory flows, including through humanitarian aid. This situation destabilizes their economic and security development, and also impacts Europe, because populations fleeing the Sahel seek to reach Europe via the Senegalese or Mauritanian coasts and the Canary Islands.
This increased migratory pressure and security problems at the gates of countries seeking stability jeopardize their economic development. Russia uses this strategy of chaos and resource predation to control the European neighborhood.
What future for the region? Could the United States and France establish themselves there again in the years to come?
France is still present and has bases in Senegal and Ivory Coast. It has strengthened its defense partnership with Benin. However, it is not a question of having power instruments, you also need to know how to use them. Since the 2020s, the succession of putsches has been denounced by Emmanuel Macron, but France has often adopted a wait-and-see posture, which has damaged its credibility.
The neighboring countries of the Sahelian states need strong allies. Many are asking questions about the reliability of the French ally. Following the putsches, France further helped Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Benin to fortify their borders and secure their populations. However, the lack of a strong reaction following the putsches that occurred in Mali, Burkina and Niger at the start of the 2020 decade has damaged French credibility.
If France does not intervene to stop the progression of the putsches, and behind them, Russia, the entire West African sub-region is threatened by chaos and security and migratory disorders. This situation also threatens the countries of North Africa and Europe.
To remedy this, France must act as soon as a putsch is being prepared. She should have defended Mohamed Bazoum in Niger within 24 hours of the coup. We must also be lucid about anti-French sentiment, often exploited by Russian propaganda. France must behave as a reliable and secure ally, without fearing criticism.
Currently, Russia seeks to control Europe’s external borders through conventional means in the East and hybrid means in the South. We must not be afraid to strike when necessary. The balance of power is increasingly important, and beyond the discourse of power, there is a lack of power politics. Indeed, France has numerous means of pressure. For example, the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States, critical of France, still depend on the CFA franc and the European market. In addition, West African countries correspond to around 0.5% of our foreign trade: they need us economically, while we do not need them. Colonial complexes, which are political artifices, prevent us from acting to defend our interests, which are not only our national interests, but also the interests of the European continent. Above all, it is not by leaving the African game that we will prevent hostile powers from controlling our great neighborhood, that we will succeed in curbing and controlling immigration, nor in building the conditions for prosperity in our immediate environment. .
Loup Viallet published “The end of the CFA franc” and “After the peace French Challenges” with VA Editions.
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