Seventh in Ligue 1 almost halfway through, RC Lens remains in ambush in the race for places synonymous with European qualification. And before looking ahead to the second part of the season, reading the xG undoubtedly highlights a real reason for hope for the Artesian collective. Explanations.
An RC Lens can still aim higher
Among the best defenses in Ligue 1 (3rd), RC Lens is struggling offensively (12th attack). And this is glaring when reading the expected goals over the first sixteen days of the championship. With 19 goals scored for 25.14 xGthe Sang et Or have a differential of more than 6 goals, the second worst total after Toulouse.
Conversely, the teammates of Brice Samba simply conceded 14 goals for 16.57 xGA (i.e. the total expected goals conceded according to the xG model*), which represents an “outperformance” of just over two goals. In any case, RC Lens is behind the expected progress table on a statistical level. Indeed, Will Still's troop counts 24 points for a total of 25.98 xPTSa difference of almost two points.
But beyond the total points, it is above all the ranking which could be different without a certain offensive underperformance. According to the xG model ofUnderStatsRC Lens was expected to be in fifth place at this stage of the season, ahead of Lille, Nice and Marseille. Three teams which are actually ahead of the Lensois, unlike Toulouse which jumps from ninth to third place according to the XG model.
Definition: xG measures the quality of a scoring opportunity. How ? Based on a history of several hundred thousand shots and multiplying the analysis factors: was the goal scored with a head or a foot? How far away is the player at the time of the shot? What was the shooting angle? So many elements which make it possible to quantify the probability that a player has of scoring a goal. Expected goals allow you to determine the percentage chance that an opportunity ends in a goal
