When the market is cold, it buys oil and energy

Europe has therefore started its 2025 stock market year in the green, despite the obvious poor shape of the American market, which has poorly digested the New Year’s Eve bamboche. It’s convenient, we can finally write that the European stock markets outperform Wall Street. Well, a little bit. What did the first 2025 shopping cart of the average investor on the old continent contain? A jerry can of oil, a box of batteries, a model of an A320 and a weight loss pill.

In a more professional manner, financiers bought companies exposed to oil and energy, after the renewed tension on the prices of black gold and gas. This peak was fueled by the planned end of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, but above all by the prospect of a cold snap in the United States. The barrel of American light crude oil WTI rose from 70 to 73 USD in less than a week. In turn, energy companies also did well. We therefore saw a clear rebound in oil and gas players such as Equinor, Aker BP and GTT, but also in companies exposed to electricity production, the image of Vestas, Orsted or Verbund in renewable energies, or of Centrica and Engie among more conventional players. Airbus (+3.5%) also shone yesterday, which strongly contributed to putting the CAC40 in the green in Paris, since the group became the 5^e most influential file in the index. The aeronautics group benefited from a very positive study from Bank of America, which ranked it among the 25 stocks to hold in 2025. The bank was impressed by Airbus’ ability to accelerate its production rates at the end of year, to almost achieve its objectives (a priori, 760 devices delivered for 770 planned, which remains an exceptional performance given sectoral bottlenecks). The last European point of support was Novo Nordisk, which rebounded by 2.3% on what are called “cheap buyouts”, that is to say investors who wanted to take advantage of a stock that collapsed 17.6% in December.

In the United States, the first session of the year resembled the appointment of François Bayrou: a little hope at the beginning, a phase where everyone was disillusioned, then a sluggish period of hesitation. Results of the races, declines of 0.2 to 0.3% for the three main indices. The Nasdaq could almost have finished in the green thanks to Nvidia’s surge, but that was without the 6% gain from Tesla, whose global sales were both slightly below expectations and down for the first time in ten years. This situation makes it more difficult to justify a 2025 PER of 125 times, that is to say approximately 30 times that of Renault. But hey, the president of the United States advisor to the presidency of the United States is not the head of Renault. For the rest of the rating, nothing very original. American investors did like their little European comrades: they rushed into oil stocks and electricity producers (Vistra, Constellation Energy, etc.), going so far as to bet on solar stocks like First Solar. and Enphase, although notoriously not Trump-compatible. With this inaugural decline, Wall Street continues a 5^e consecutive session in the red, which is rare enough to be highlighted.

The week therefore ends with a surge in oil prices, while the euro continues to crumble against the dollar, reaching a two-year low. Currency traders are increasingly talking about a return to parity between the two main world currencies. The rest of the macro news focuses on the December ISM manufacturing index in the United States, which will be published this afternoon, and on China, where the Central Bank could make a change of strategy this year, to move closer to the practices of Western central banks. In any case, this is what the Financial Times revealed this morning, after asking the question directly to the PBOC. Furthermore, Beijing has announced that new export restrictions will be applied to technologies used for the manufacturing of battery components and the processing of two rare metals. Attacked by the United States on the semiconductor front, China responds on the battery front.

In Asia Pacific this morning, Hong Kong is raising its head a little after a difficult first session yesterday. The recovery of the semiconductor sector in the United States awakens South Korea, which takes 1.8%. Positive session in Australia also, with a more modest gain of 0.6%. Finally, India lost 0.3%. Japan is still closed, contrary to what I said yesterday. Resumption Monday in Tokyo. European leading indicators have a slight bearish bias in pre-opening.

The CAC40 starts the day at -0.3% at 7,369 points. The SMI gained 0.4% to 11,650 points, driven by UBS. The Bel20 lost 0.07% to 4,286 points.

Today’s economic highlights

German monthly unemployment (9:55 a.m.) and American ISM manufacturing (4:00 p.m.) are the two major indicators of the day. The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Ashtead Group: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a reduced price target of 6500 to 5600 GBX.
• Autostore: Morgan Stanley maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the price target from NOK 9.50 to NOK 9.60.
• Honkarakenne: Inderes maintains its reduction recommendation with a price target reduced from 2.90 to 2.50 EUR.
• Indivior: Jefferies remains a buy with a price target reduced from 1800 to 1220 GBX.
• Jerónimo Martins: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its underperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 15 EUR to 15.50 EUR. Grupo Santander maintains its recommendation of outperformance with a price target reduced from 23 EUR to 22.80 EUR.
• Knorr-Bremse: Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking improves its sell advice to hold with a price target raised from 63.60 EUR to 65 EUR.
• Medicover: Jefferies remains to be retained with a price target raised from 180 to 190 SEK.
• Netcompany Group: Citigroup remains neutral with a price target raised from 325 to 350 DKK.
• Nokia: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 5 to USD 5.50.
• Novo Nordisk: Jyske Bank maintains its buy recommendation with a reduced price target of 1000 to 850 DKK.
• Outokumpu: BNP Paribas Exane goes from neutral to underperformance.
• OVH Groupe: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target raised from 8.55 to 8.70 EUR.
• Salvatore Ferragamo: Intesa Sanpaolo maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target raised from 6.40 to 6.80 EUR.
• Sandoz Group: Jefferies remains a buy with a price target raised from 40 to 43.20 CHF.
• Schott Pharma: Jefferies remains to be retained with a price target reduced from 31.80 to 26.34 EUR.
• Shell: Wolfe Research upgrades its sector performance recommendation to outperform with a price target of USD 80.
• Sinch: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target reduced from SEK 55 to SEK 38.297.
• Swedbank: SEB Bank maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 260 to 264 SEK.
• Talanx: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the price target from 91.10 to 95.30 EUR.
• Tesco: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target reduced from 445 GBX to 425 GBX.
• TotalEnergies: Wolfe Research maintains its outperformance recommendation with a price target raised from 81 to 82 USD.
• UBS: BNP Paribas Exane moves from neutral to outperformance.
• Vistry Group: Berenberg maintains its recommendation to hold with a reduced price target of 750 to 650 GBX.
• Voestalpine: BNP Paribas Exane goes from outperformance to neutral.
• Wise: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the price target from 1200 GBX to 1320 GBX.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• Airbus would have delivered around 760 planes in 2024, 10 less than the annual target, according to Bloomberg. This remains at the high end of market expectations.
• Orange, via its joint venture MasOrange, will own 50% of a fiber joint venture with Vodafone Spain (Zegona) and another investor.
• EssilorLuxottica acquires startup Pulse Audition.
• Nexans finalizes the sale of its American industrial cables subsidiary.
• Scor finalizes the sale of its stake in the Humensis group.
• Atos claims that claims by the Space Bears ransomware group that the Atos organization was compromised are unfounded.
• Brookfield Corporation has filed its proposed simplified takeover bid for Neoen, in which it holds 53.81% of the capital at EUR 39.85 per share.
• Kalray has received an informal offer for its DAP division (Ngenea products) but needs other sources of financing in the near future.
• McPhy explains that the fire which struck a bus depot near Belfort did not damage its facilities.
• SMCP announces the conversion of its ADP G shares into ordinary shares, after which the founders and managers of the company will hold 10.3% of the capital and 14.7% of the voting rights.
• OL (Eagle Football) transferred Gift Orban to Hoffenheim for €9 million plus bonus and incentive for a future transfer.
• The main publications of the day : Argan… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

• Ryanair recorded an 8% increase in passenger traffic in December.
• The chairman of the board of directors of Pierer Mobility Josef Blazicek will resign in favor of Stephan Zöchling.
• Jungfraubahn once again exceeds one million passengers.
• SGS opens an analytical laboratory in Australia.
• The main publications of the day : nothing…

From North America

• Tesla saw a decline in global deliveries for the first time in a decade.
• Apple pays $95 million to end complaint that Siri spied on users.
• Unity gained 9% yesterday on an obscure message from Roaring Kitty.
• Short seller Hindenburg Research takes on Carvana (report here).
• The main publications of the day : nothing…

From Asia Pacific and beyond

• Joe Biden is set to remain inflexible on his veto of the takeover of United States Steel by Nippon Steel.
• Alibaba repurchased $1.3 billion worth of shares during Q4 2024.
• The main publications of the day : nothing…

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

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