What impact on your bill in 2025?

By Lucie Deschamps

Published on
January 3, 2025

The European gas market is starting 2025 under high tension. On December 31, 2024, the European gas prices crossed the symbolic bar of 50 euros per megawatt hour (MWh)a level which had not been reached since October 2023. This spectacular increase, which promises to be a real shock for consumers, is the result of a confluence of geopolitical, climatic and economic factors.

Gas at 50 euros: understanding the recent increase

The sudden rise in gas prices can be explained by several factors which came together at the start of the year:

• Stopping transit via Ukraine : Since January 1, 2025, Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine have ceased. This decision, taken by kyiv in the context of the war which has lasted for almost three years, aims to cut off part of Russia’s revenue.
• A colder winter than expected : Low temperatures since the end of October have led to increased use of heating, increasing demand for gas.
• Increased dependence on LNG : Europe has turned more towards liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly American, which is structurally more expensive than Russian gas transported by pipeline.

These factors propelled the gas price on the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the main European gas market, at more than 50 euros per MWh, compared to less than 30 euros at the same period the previous year.

When Ukraine turns off the tap

The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine brand a turning point in European energy geopolitics. This decision has immediate repercussions on the supply of certain central and eastern European countries which remained heavily dependent on Russian gas.

According to Christoph Halser, analyst at Rystad Energy, laugh Russian gas still represents 14% of total EU consumption in 2024, a slight increase from 12% the previous year. This persistent dependence partly explains the nervousness of the markets in the face of the cessation of Ukrainian transit.

The American alternative and its implications

Pour compensate for the drop in Russian gas importsEurope has massively focused on LNGparticularly from the United States. However, this alternative has a cost:

• LNG is structurally more expensive than gas transported by pipeline.
• THE necessary infrastructure its importation and distribution are expensive.
• The international competition for access to LNG is forteparticularly with Asia.

This increased dependence on LNG has contributed to thestructural increase in megawatt-hour costs since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Gas stocks: Where is Europe today?

The situation of gas stocks in Europe is worrying. According to the European Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory (AGSI) platform, thes gas reserves are on average around 73% in the countries of the European Union, a rate largely lower than the 86% observed during the same period in 2023.

Faced with this situation, the European Commission has taken measures:

• The threshold required for EU gas reserves on February 1, 2025 has been increased from 45% to 50%.
• Efforts are requested from Member States to accelerate the filling of stocks.

These measures aim to prevent a possible shortage in the event of a particularly harsh winter or further disruptions in supplies.

Your bill in 2025: what could change

The impact of this rising gas prices on consumers is already visible. In France, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) announced a increase in the benchmark sales price of natural gas of 4.38% in January 2025 compared to December 2024.

Concretely, this translates into:

• For cooking and hot water: 0.14743 € TTC/kWh in January 2025, against 0.14135 € TTC/kWh in December 2024.
• For heating: An increase of 3,8%bringing the price to 0,118 €/kWh.

These increases could be reflected in the annual household bill, with a increase estimated between 50 and 300 euros depending on the use of gas.

Faced with this situation, consumers are encouraged to:

The year 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for the gas market in Europe. Consumers will have to remain vigilant in the face of price changes and adapt their consumption accordingly.