According to information from the site Politico, American intelligence services estimate that the risk of conflict in Lebanon is increasing significantly. This assessment, released Thursday evening, highlights growing concern about a possible escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in the coming weeks, particularly in the context of the failure of negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza.
U.S. officials have told Politico that significant efforts are currently being made to ease tensions. They argued that a truce in Gaza could have facilitated this process, but that such a prospect currently appears unlikely. Meanwhile, both in Lebanon and Israel, there are reports that war plans are being drawn up and both sides continue to prepare for a possible major clash.
The Biden administration, while recognizing the declarations of both parties affirming that they do not want an extension of the conflict, notes that the risks of escalation continue to increase despite diplomatic efforts. According to the media, the exact timing of a potential conflict remains uncertain, in particular because of Israel’s efforts to replenish its stocks and carry out new mobilizations. The media indicates that American estimates are even more optimistic than those of certain European countries. The latter are reportedly considering the possibility of conflict breaking out in the coming days, leading several European nations to advise their citizens to leave Lebanon. Canada has even started the first phase of its evacuation plan.
A senior Biden administration official stressed during a briefing that Hezbollah’s logic, linking the situation in Lebanon to that of Gaza, is firmly rejected by the United States. This position underscores the divergence of perspectives between the different actors involved. Another information from the site Politico reveals that a major attack could occur on very short notice, whether from the Lebanese or Israeli side.
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