This column could have been titled “5 issues to watch in January 2025”, because rarely has the first month of the year been so decisive for the future.
The future of Justin Trudeau
Will leave, will not leave. He was believed to be organizing his exit in the wake of the December 20 reshuffle, then the Globe and Mail told us that he would not make any decisions during the holiday season.
Justin Trudeau’s future has turned into a saga worthy of the series House of Cards (without the murders of course).
Perhaps the Prime Minister is waiting to see if his faithful right-hand man, Dominic Leblanc, will have succeeded in coaxing Donald Trump’s inner circle during his holiday visit to West Palm Beach.
A victory on this front would give him a pretext to hold on and subdue the growing number of rebels in his caucus.
Regardless, his government is buying time. The one necessary to prepare for an inevitable premature election in 2025.
Le chaos Trump
With Operation “Humiliate Canada” a success, Donald Trump has turned his guns towards the Panama Canal, which he threatens to regain control of.
He is not yet president and he is already imposing his agenda on America and the rest of the world. He forced Congress to rewrite its budget. He won the first rounds of his showdown against the American press. Above all, he imposed new priorities on the Canadian government.
Its tariffs threaten to plunge the country into recession. After the border, it will be national defense, then access to critical minerals.
His approach in Ukraine and towards Israel will be decisive for global stability.
We will have to get used to chaos and improvisation taking over the rationality that guided our relations with the United States.
PLQ leadership race
There are finally candidates for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Quebec! A former lieutenant of Justin Trudeau, a former mayor of Montreal, a young wolf from the chamber of commerce sector, an MP and an unknown person.
We are far from the clash of the Titans. But there is enough talent and diversity of points of view to finally allow a necessary mixing of preconceived ideas within Jean Lesage’s party.
Because they are existential, the questions that arise.
How can we embody the Quebec nationalism necessary to win back the French-speaking electorate, without alienating the support of the English-speaking and immigrant communities of Greater Montreal?
How can we redefine the economic nationalism that has made the mark of the PLQ?
Official launch on January 13 for a vote on June 14, 2025.
Law on secularism
The work of the National Assembly will resume on January 28. And Prime Minister François Legault showed his colors. A tightening of the law on secularism is in the cards.
Even before returning to the Red Room, we will see the results of the audits carried out in the 17 schools targeted in the wake of the Bedford affair. A finally more precise portrait of the extent of the problem of “religious entryism” in our schools.
What measures will the government take to counter the problem? And will it thus give itself the tools to counter the ghettoization of public schools?
Above all, will François Legault take the opportunity to ban prayer in the streets like those which have marked too many pro-Palestinian demonstrations?
Heated debates ahead.
Bank of Canada key rate
On Wednesday, January 29, the Bank of Canada will decide on a further reduction in the key rate. Enough to brighten up the start of the year for future buyers and those who are preparing to renew their mortgage.
But the other side of the coin is the fragility of the Canadian economy. Because beyond the Trump threat discussed above, the signals are red.
The unemployment rate has already crossed the 6.8% mark in November. Add the drop in the number of immigrants and temporary workers which will have a direct impact on SMEs, the low productivity which has plagued our manufacturing sector for decades, and the starving economic growth which risks wreaking havoc.
