After a first quarter of a century without any problems for its economy, despite Covid, the end of banking secrecy, the strong franc and the absence of a framework agreement with the European Union, Switzerland is now approaching the next twenty-five years with no less than five burning challenges: a health system that could collapse at any moment, stagnant demographics, a very aging population, a very uncertain energy transition towards all-electricity and a threatening acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI ) unleashed.
How can Switzerland cope with this? Let’s take a closer look at these challenges.
1. Health
Health costs have increased by an average of 3.2% per year over the last 25 years. If this rate continues, then we will have to face a doubling of health costs, we would reach 200 billion francs. It’s hard to believe that the system will hold. What to do then? Medical technologies, such as those augmented by AI, could help us get some chronic diseases out of the system by entrusting their treatment directly to patients. You should know that chronic diseases correspond to 80% of the total costs of the health system. It is necessary to lighten it by starting with a few of them.
2 and 3. The size of the population and its aging
According to the basic hypothesis of the Federal Statistical Office, Switzerland should not exceed 10 million inhabitants. A decline, as observed in Germany, Italy, Japan or China, should then take place. This is a huge problem for an aging population with risks of deflation, recession, lack of skilled workers and debt. Immigration, which has been the solution for a quarter of a century, will sooner or later stop and the problems will begin. The solution will involve accelerating the robotization of the economy and society.
4. The energy transition towards all-electric
It also poses a serious problem of investment but also of supply given that needs will grow faster than supply, particularly under the pressure of AI “data center” needs. The solution may come from the advanced technology of mini-nuclear power plants.
5. Artificial intelligence
AI will shake up the economy in its foundations and in its regulation: AI agents will take charge of most of the tasks formerly done by humans, a profound reorganization of companies will take place, it will be done by products or services by the integrative and horizontal force of AI (the end of professional knowledge), work will be broken down/recomposed (fluid schedules during the day and week), etc.
To achieve this, it will be necessary to draw on Switzerland’s two main strengths: its spirit of innovation and its resilience.
Innovation because it will take a lot to turn the tide in the history of health, demographics and energy, not to mention adaptation to AI. But above all, never forget that economic growth is the basis of the Swiss welfare system. It will therefore be necessary, on the one hand, to reduce excessively costly bureaucracy and, on the other hand, to open new markets thanks to international free trade agreements like the one signed some time ago with India, but above all the one with the United States which is still slow to materialize. As Hugo van Buel, executive vice-president of Cla-Val Co, says with so much common sense: “For a small country like Switzerland, the future must first involve conquering large markets because only gains in growth will help resolve the various problems that face us.”
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