This is the first surprise offered by this historic day. A sharp increase in participation in France and also in the region. At 5 p.m., the participation rate in the North stood at 60.87%. In Pas-de-Calais, 59.66%.
A democratic surge whatever the outcome of this election. With these more numerous ballots, first lessons from this particular vote.
At 5 p.m., the turnout in the North was 60.87%. It was 37.3% during the legislative elections in 2022, at the same time. That is more than 22 points more than 5 years ago.
In Pas-de-Calais, participation at 5 p.m. was 59.66%. It was 41.63% in 2022 at the same time.
If participation is increasing sharply in the North (+20 points compared to the 2022 legislative elections), it is nevertheless increasing more slowly in Pas-de-Calais.
Who will benefit from this surge? “That’s the whole question.“, explains Tristan Haute, political scientist and expert on the region. For him, the first lesson is that young people have mobilized. Since traditionally the older ones turn out more during elections, this higher participation would therefore be linked to the mobilization of the younger ones and probably of the neighborhoods. As is usually the case during presidential elections.
Higher participation tends to erase “social inequalities in participation and age” Tristan Haute explains to us.
With a participation rate that could reach between 65 and 70% at the national level, according to polling institutes, the three-way races will naturally be more numerous. The candidates will be more numerous to reach the threshold necessary for their maintenance (12.5% of registered candidates).
This is where all the uncertainty of the evening will be anchored. According to Tristan Haute, “we won’t know much tonight. We’ll have to wait to see who stays, who withdraws… we’ll just know which bloc is in the lead, to what extent the President of the Republic is weakened… it will be very difficult to draw the potential composition of the National Assembly“.
Negotiations will be intense and will probably start as early as 8pm this evening. Candidates who can stay will have until 6pm on Tuesday to submit their applications to the prefecture.
Another consequence of this high turnout is that the elected deputies will be elected with a large number of votes. The political scientist specifies: “They will therefore have significant legitimacy which will weigh against the President of the Republic. He will have to consider the deputies more, even those from his camp who did not necessarily claim his support during the short campaign.“
For Tristan Haute, this participation rate will “promote a parliamentary strategy of majority building. Steering from the Elysée will be more difficult with such well-elected deputies.“
