When will Pascale come out of indecision? The June 30 vote is approaching, and this 65-year-old former caregiver still does not know who to entrust with her vote. National gathering? ” Out of the question “says this resident of Val-d’Oise, a practicing Catholic with her husband, Frédéric. Together? “Macron really annoyed us by persisting on certain subjects without listening to intermediary bodies, such as the end of life.” New Popular Front? “If it had been a socialist or an environmentalist, I wouldn’t have hesitated, but an Insoumis… Mélenchon makes me sick.”
One thing is certain: Pascale will not vote blank. Not in the second round any more than in the first. “We must take responsibility, the RN is on the verge of power!” And adding with a sigh: “I’m tired of always voting ‘against’.”
There are many of these torn, undecided voters, both aware of the gravity of the moment and frustrated at not being able to vote. “with a good heart”. According to an Ipsos poll published on June 22, LR voters were then the least sure of their choice for these legislative elections, 48% believing that their vote could still change between now and the first round on Sunday. A significant hesitation also among majority voters (28%).
“Who is my worst enemy? »
These tensions should further exacerbate during the second round of July 7, where the New Popular Front/RN duel could be the most frequent configuration. “The number of these duels is estimated at at least 200 across France”counts Émilien Houard-Vial, doctoral student at the Center for European Studies at Sciences Po. In 2022, only 61 constituencies had seen the Nupes and the RN confront each other in the second round. “For seven years, voters of the presidential majority have very rarely been put in this position of having to choose between two parties that they reject”continues this specialist.
“Only one electorate will not be torn apart on July 7: that of RNbecause there should be candidates almost everywhereunderlines political scientist Vincent Tiberj. The rejection of the parties is so strong that, apart from the RN, none has a solid electoral base. What will make the election is this question: “Who is my worst enemy?” »
Gisèle Marchelli, who has always campaigned on the right before joining Édouard Philippe’s Horizons party two years ago, would refuse to choose, if the case arose, between “two extremes, whether right or left». For the septuagenarian, RN and LFI ” look alike “although the extreme right still seems to him “more sneaky and polite”. “The RN people are going to take power and I wonder if one day they will give it backworries Gisèle from her seaside resort of Sanary-sur-Mer (Var). How can we be light enough to say, like my neighbors, that “after all we have never tried”? If we don’t know the history and sources of the RN, we’ll be fooled!
The anti-left rhetoric of the Macronist camp
Ce “lack of political culture” also exasperates Jean-Luc who, near Saint-Étienne (Loire), is the same age and more or less has the same political background as Gisèle. “I knew May 68 and we had quite a culture at the time! We knew the history of France, the institutions…” This former executive at PSA “does not understand why the French give so much credit” both at the RN and at LFI, whose“incompetence” and the “demagoguery”particularly on the economic level. “I don’t understand, I don’t understand anymore… In fact, I’m a little stunned.”
However, Jean-Luc still hopes for a “Republican surge”. “When they’re in the voting booth, their ballot in their hand, people might say to themselves: ‘Whoa, what am I about to do?’ »
For his part, researcher Émilien Houard-Vial believes that “bet everything on the automatism of the centrist vote presented as the only reasonable one” would be a ” error ” from the presidential camp. “Macronie based its campaign on condemning “the extremes”, with a real hardening of anti-left rhetoric in the last two weeks. It is among other things the short deadline that dictated this strategy: instead of proposing things to attract people to it, the outgoing majority is stirring up fear of what would happen if it did not win.”
With the risk, however, of becoming a « vote refuge » quite fragile. “If we are to believe the polls, this rhetoric of danger and incompetence of the NFP is spreading in public opinion, but it does not seem to benefit the candidates of Ensemble in voting intentions”, continues Émilien Houard-Vial. The prospect of an NFP victory worries more French people (53%) than that of the RN (50%), according to an Elabe survey published on June 22. On the evening of the first round, according to this same survey, the outgoing majority would only come in third position (around 20%) behind the RN (36%) and the NFP (27%).
“We don’t block it any way”
« Dire “ni LFI ni RN”is a non-choice that is still a choice”observes the philosopher Alain Cugno, associate member of the philosophy faculty of the Loyola Paris Faculties (former Center Sèvres). “In the second round, abstaining in the event of a duel will amount to favoring the one who comes out on top, which is likely to be the RN. I swore to myself that I would never again vote against my convictions, but I believe there is worse: putting yourself at the service of a project that you viscerally reject. It is urgent, after all.”
In his 20th arrondissement of Paris, Pascal, “unbreakable socialist”, is not of this opinion. Like a third of those who chose Raphaël Glucksmann’s list during the European elections on June 9(according to the Elabe survey of June 22), this fifty-year-old invested in the memory of the deportation excludes voting for the NFP this Sunday. July 7 too, moreover, even if he recognizes that the RN has not ” no chance “ to qualify for the second round in his constituency, “the second most left in France”.
Inexhaustible on the “excesses” and the “vulgarity” of certain Insoumis deputies, including the one who is representing himself at home, Pascal says he observes “with horror Mélenchon’s drift towards communitarianism and anti-Semitism” as well as the lack of internal democracy. “LFI takes the left-wing electorate for floor mops, but we are not voting machines! It is to our credit to tell them: “No, that’s enough.” They are hurting the left and France. To successfully fight the far right, you have to be impeccable. You don’t block them just anyhow.”
Political parties with strong incarnations
Pauline, a 33-year-old teacher in Seine-Saint-Denis, partly shares this exasperation. However, on July 7, in the event of a triangular where the RN would be present, she will vote LFI. “Without hesitation given what is at stake, but with a very firm pinch of my nose, because the candidate who is standing in my country is one of the most controversial in the party. My vote will not be a blank cheque for him.”
For political scientist Vincent Tiberj, the tensions experienced by all these voters arise, among other things, from the fact that the current political offer consists of three “personal parties”. “Each presents a strong incarnation around a personality, coupled with an inability to manage internal dissensus”he explains.
How, under these conditions, can we overcome our sometimes visceral revulsion for the person in question? “By looking to the traditions and political culture of the party concerned, believes the philosopher Alain Cugno. And by relying on the body of ideas that structures it. »
Composition of the outgoing National Assembly. / Visactu
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