The first round of the legislative elections are in 9 days ! While waiting for the deadline, Sud Radio offers you every day from 5:00 p.m. to find the IFOP – Fiducial survey, and to follow, day by day, the evolution of voting intentions for each candidate list in the election. Find the estimated scores of the lists of the National Rally, the New Popular Front, the presidential majority…
Voting intentions for this Friday, June 21, 2024:
A candidate from the extreme left (LO, NPA-Revolutionaries, etc.): 1% (=)
A candidate from the New Popular Front (LFI, PC, PS, PP, Les Ecologists): 29% (=)
Un(e) diverse gauche candidate (PRG…) : 1% (=)
A candidate from the presidential majority: 21.5% (−0.5)
A candidate(s) from various centers: 1 % (=)
A Republican or various right-wing candidate: 6.5% (+0.5)
A candidate invested or supported by the National Rally (The Right with Eric Ciotti…): 35% (+1)
Un(e) candidate(s) de Reconquête: 1.5 % (−0.5)
Un(e) candidate(e) diverse: 3.5 % (−0.5)
The National Rally widens the gap but remains far from the absolute majority
Even if the National Rally continues to perform well in the polls (35% voting intentions in the first round, up 1% compared to Thursday), the party chaired by Jordan Bardella still remains far from an absolute majority (which requires 51% of votes received). As a reminder, Jordan Bardella declared on Tuesday June 18 that he would only accept the post of Prime Minister if his party obtained an absolute majority in the next legislative elections.
Discover the headquarters projections of voting intentions in the legislative elections
Find all the latest news from the legislative elections on our Youtube channel and on Jean-Jacques Bourdin’s microphone on Sud Radio’s political guest.
What is the Rolling method?
A “rolling” survey is a continuous barometric survey carried out on the principle of a rolling accumulation of daily survey waves: the survey wave of the day is cumulated with the waves of the two previous days as part of a sample bringing together nearly 1,500 people in total. By its continuous nature, a rolling avoids the major pitfall of a barometer produced at regular intervals: discontinuity.
By eliminating the sudden changes observed from one wave to another in traditional barometers, this system makes it possible to smooth out the effects of the economic situation and therefore to ensure more stable and more detailed monitoring of current events.
