The first results of the European elections began to fall in Brussels, when President Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly. The President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola was giving a series of interviews. Within the Brussels hemicycle, transformed for the occasion into a gigantic press room, all eyes were turned towards the French correspondents: “What’s going on in France? » asked their colleagues. In the French ranks too, the surprise was total.
“We were all shocked by this unexpected decision, and once the state of astonishment passed, we began to consider the potential consequences”, testifies a highly placed Source in the European Parliament. Many in the European sphere want to believe that the presidential party could emerge victorious from these legislative elections. And when a defeat is mentioned, an argument constantly comes up: for Europe, it is better, in France, three years of cohabitation with the National Rally than to see it elected in the 2027 presidential election.
Jupiter’s oversized ego
But the decision is disturbing. In Brussels, many European officials have little desire to comment on the “decisions of a president in the permanent spectacle”, as one of them sums it up. German MEP Andreas Schwab, who is preparing to begin a fifth term, for his part criticizes Emmanuel Macron “for having made Europe its baby that no one has the right to touch”. And the chosen one grumbled: “We see the result, it only strengthened Marine Le Pen…” Another elected official criticizes “Jupiter’s oversized ego”.
The consequences will be felt in Parliament as well as in the Council (which brings together the 27 heads of state and government). “At the end of these European elections, the largest French delegation is that of the National Rally (with 30 seats, Editor’s note). The Macronist deputies remain the first delegation of the Renew group but lose a certain number of seats (they are 13 against 23 in the outgoing Parliament, Editor’s note). The list led by Raphaël Glucksmann obtains 13 deputies, which restores some presence to the left in Brussels. This table shows a reduction in French influence in the European Parliament and fewer political relays for the president »analyzes Éric Maurice, researcher at the European Policy Center (EPC).
The Franco-German engine is losing capacity
“With the spotlight now on Paris, French MEPs could feel abandoned here, even as important negotiations open in Parliament on the distribution of key positions within political groups and within committees”adds a Source in Parliament, who fears a “tactical error”.
On the European Council side, Éric Maurice plans a “weakening of the political weight of Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, due to the strength of the extreme right in France and Germany, as well as the weakness of the scores of Renaissance and the SPD”. “Will the Franco-German engine still have the political capacity to lead its European partners? » asks the expert, who foresees a “strong uncertainty on the European scene”.
“France’s influence has not become weaker because of the dissolution announcement, France’s influence is being dragged down because of the strong presence of the far right in the European Parliament”confirms former President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, who held the position from 2014 to 2019.
A test for Paris
“We will remain influential, don’t worry! »launched Monday June 10 the head of the Renaissance party list Valérie Hayer, outgoing president of the Renew Europe group. “We must repeat to Europeans that the extreme right’s project is that of the destruction of Europe. Some assume it, like the AfD in Germanybut others, like the National Rally, no longer fully assume it”she added.
This loss of influence of Emmanuel Macron in Brussels can be measured from the informal dinner of European leaders on June 17, then during the formal European Council on June 27 and 28. He and his counterparts will have to agree on a name for the next presidency of the European Commission. Will Paris still be able to influence the choice?
