There was thus a joyful or relieved atmosphere at this press conference. Because if the outcome of this summit seemed written in advance, there was always the risk that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban, or the debate on the European challenges to be met, would come to spoil the party… Surprises could still occur.
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Why these three names and not others?
It would have been enough to remove one piece from the “UvdL-Kallas-Costa” bloc for everything to collapse. If this team was to be taken or left, it is because it was weighed on the trebuchet to preserve the political balance, between the pro-European families that will constitute a majority in the European Parliament. Namely the European People’s Party (EPP, conservative), represented by Mrs von der Leyen, the Socialists and Democrats, Antonio Costa’s club and the liberals of Renew, with Kaja Kallas.
It was also necessary for all corners of Europe to find something to suit them (North/West, South, East). “It is an honour for Estonia, a small country celebrating its 20th anniversary in the EU”rejoiced Ms Kallas, who will be the first High Representative from Eastern Europe. Last but not least, there had to be enough female profiles, as well as recognised personalities, with strong but compatible characters – no one wants to relive a rivalry such as that which opposed Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel, but also the High Representative Josep Borrell. “If there is one thing we need to improve, it is making sure we have quality people who want to work together.”the resigning Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo had pleaded before the meeting.
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Since the individuals checking these boxes were not common on the streets, the majority of leaders agreed that they were the best choices. Especially since no one wanted to replay the psychodrama of 2019, when two summits were necessary to find an agreement on the lucky ones, and out of the hat… the unexpected Ursula von der Leyen, former Minister of Defense by Angela Merkel.
Did everyone agree?
Not everyone saw things this way. Giorgia Meloni arrived (and left) grumbling about this team that does not display any label “European Conservatives and Reformists” (ECR) – family of her neo-fascist party Fratelli d’Italia – or in general of the radical right and far-right forces, which have had (relative) success in the European elections.
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Too bad, replied the other leaders, who only needed a majority to validate “UvdL-Kallas-Costa”. “CerSome felt it would be a good idea to try to cooperate with Ms. Meloni.”confides an insider, with reference, in particular, to the Pole Donald Tusk. “For others, it was important to show that she does not belong to the platform of the three pro-European parties. What contributed to her feeling of humiliation was that they wanted to demonstrate that she was not the kingmaker she thought she was.”
“Their proposal is erroneous in method and substance. I have decided not to support it, out of respect for the citizens and the signal they have in the elections,” snapped Mrs Meloni, who did not however put forward any alternative proposal… The Italian will therefore have left the summit sulking, but not too much judging by her vote: no to Mr Costa and Mrs Kallas, abstention for UvdL. The Hungarian Orban who expressed the same complaint voted against “UvdL” and abstained for Kaja Kallas. But the Italian wanted to leave the door open to cash in on her party’s support for the German, at the next stage…
Packed, is it weighed? Not quite
The saga of top jobs will continue on 18 July in the European Parliament, with the investiture vote of Ursula von der Leyen, by secret ballot. The outgoing president will have to convince at least 361 out of 720 MEPs to vote in her favour. In itself, the count is there, with the EPP, the socialists and the liberals, who have a total of 399 seats. Defections are however expected, as the experience of 2019 showed. At the time, she had only collected nine votes more than the required threshold of 374 votes. And even then, it was thanks to allies who were anything but natural, such as the Poles of the PiS, members of the ECR, who indicated that they would not do it again. Mrs von der Leyen will therefore have to make a choice: cast her net wide rather on the left (the Greens) or on the right (the 23 MEPs of Meloni & Co.), the two not being compatible.
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What if she miscalculated? Officially, there is no plan B. The European Council should meet again. It would above all be up to the EPP, which wants to keep control of the presidency of the Commission, to propose another solution.
If Mr. Costa is certain to take office in December, Kaja Kallas will have to undergo a hearing before the European Parliament, where she will undoubtedly be questioned about her interest in the world that does not surround Ukraine. This is an obligatory passage for the entire college of commissioners, which the president will have to constitute with the politicians sent to Brussels by each of the member states. After which, a brand new season of the European series will begin…
