From January 1, 2025, smokers will have to face a new increase in cigarette prices in France. This increase, planned as part of the anti-smoking policy, reflects both a government desire to dissuade consumption and an adaptation of prices to inflation.
The majority of cigarette brands will experience a significant increase in their prices, varying between 50 cents and 1 euro per packet. Popular brands such as Lucky Strike, Camel, Winston et Philip Morris will see their price set at 12,50 euros for a pack of 20 cigarettes. Other brands will cross the symbolic threshold of 13 euros: Marlboro, Peter Stuyvesant et Vogue will now cost 13 euroswhile the packets Dunhill will reach 13,20 euros. On the other hand, more moderate increases will affect brands like Blonde Gaulswhich will be offered to 12,30 eurosan increase of 30 cents.
These increases also concern derived products such as cigars, rolling tobacco and heating tobacco, which amplifies the overall impact of the reform on consumers.
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Inflation and anti-smoking policies
The government justifies these increases by two main factors. On the one hand, the price of tobacco is now indexed to the inflation of the previous year. This measure, introduced in 2023 with the Social Security financing law, replaces the old method which was based on inflation two years ago. Result: increases are more sensitive to recent economic variations.
On the other hand, these increases are part of a anti-smoking plan aimed at reducing consumption. This plan had initially forecast an average price of 12 euros per package in 2025, but the evolution of economic indices led to prices higher than this projection. The government now aims to reach 13 euros per package by 2027, a target which already seems on the verge of being achieved.
Manufacturers maintain their margins
Despite these increases, tobacco manufacturers continue to generate comfortable margins. According to customs data, they collect on average 65 cents per pack sold at 11 euros. This relative stability of profits can be explained by the composition of the price of cigarettes, largely dominated by taxes (more than 80% of the final price).
For smokers, these new increases represent a significant additional cost. With prices exceeding 12.50 euros for the majority of brands, tobacco is becoming a luxury product. This increase in prices could encourage certain consumers to reduce their consumption or to consider quitting. The authorities hope that this financial pressure will reinforce the prevention and awareness campaigns already in place.
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On the side of retailers, this situation presents a double challenge. On the one hand, price increases could reduce sales volume, directly impacting their revenues. On the other hand, price disparities with neighboring countries, such as Spain or Luxembourg, risk intensifying cross-border purchases and the parallel market. These issues were raised by the Confederation of tobacconists, which calls for a balance between taxation and competitiveness.
A European strategy to combat smoking
France is aligning itself here with a European strategy aimed at dissuading tobacco consumption through regular price increases. For comparison, French prices remain higher than those in several neighboring countries, but lower than those in the United Kingdom, where a package can cost up to 15 euros.
This context highlights the complexity of managing public tobacco policies. While seeking to reduce the negative effects on public health, the government must deal with the economic and social repercussions on smokers and traders.
An opportunity to quit smoking?
Faced with these successive increases, many smokers could seize the opportunity to reduce or stop their consumption. Health authorities encourage this approach, emphasizing the short and long term benefits on health and the budget. Support systems, such as tobacco consultations or cessation aid, are widely accessible.
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With increasingly dissuasive prices, the fight against tobacco in France is taking on a new dimension. The increases announced for 2025 are not just a price change: they are part of an overall public health policy, where tobacco becomes a less and less accessible product, at all levels.
