It is not only in France that the far right is achieving significant results. There are certainly not many countries in Europe where it inflicts such a defeat on the ruling party as in France, but it weighs almost everywhere.
In Germany, the AFD, the party that even Marine Le Pen considered too radical to coexist in the same group as her, came second. The AFD is ahead of the three parties in the government coalition, a humiliation for Chancellor Scholz. Even if it should still be noted that it is the CDU, the classic right, which comes out on top.
There may be an optical illusion this morning, looking at the results
The appearance of the next European Parliament will ultimately not be so different from the previous one : the two rival far-right coalitions are increasing their surface area, but without overturning the table. Even if they added up their seats, it wouldn’t change anything.
It should first be noted that the two main political groups in Parliament remain the European People’s Party, the right, of which the German CDU or the French Republicans are part, followed by the social democrats. Their number of seats varies relatively little. Only the liberal group, dominated by the Macronist group, is falling sharply, and French influence will be more reduced there.
But the optical illusion is that this modified balance at the margins does not really represent the real influence of the extreme right. This weighs more and more seriously by participating in government coalitions, and this modifies the balance of power within the European Council, where important decisions are made.
Half a dozen European governments are either led by, have members within them, or are supported by far-right or populist parties. The latest is the Netherlands with Gert Wilders’ party, even if the left-Green alliance overtakes it in the European elections.
Normally, negotiations should start this week for what we call the “top jobs”, the key positions in the European Union (Presidencies of the Commission, the Council and the Parliament). A first summit of the 27 must set the tone on June 17, for a decision at the end of the month, on June 27 and 28.
But the European political scene is moving
Ursula Von der Leyen, the outgoing president of the Commission, was credited with the idea of changing the European balance: she suggested joining forces with Giorgia Meloni, the head of the Italian government, at the head of a coalition right-far right at home.
Not sure that such a hypothesis is possible at this stage. But even if the outgoing conservative-social-democrat and liberal majority is renewed, which is a strong possibility, the weight of governments influenced by the extreme right will complicate Europe’s progress, on the climate or on aid. to Ukraine. While waiting for the French elections…
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Paradoxically, Poland, which was in the hands of the populists until last year, voted in the other direction, for the center right. Prime Minister Donald Tusk made a brief comment on Twitter: “bad politicians are elected by good citizens who stayed home.” A bitter comment that deserves reflection, when half of the voters abstain.
