“ It’s time to dance in the streets around the world! “. In front of the Manhattan court, Bill Christeson exults on Thursday, May 30. Armed with a sign “ guilty “, this anti-Trump activist from Washington welcomes the conviction of the billionaire by a popular jury in a case of falsification of accounting documents to hide, before the 2016 presidential election, payments to a pornographic film actress with whom he allegedly had an extramarital relationship.
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But Bill immediately brings a caveat: “ after the party, we will have to vote because we are not going to get rid of him like that “. This opinion is shared by many anti-Trump activists met after the announcement of the historic verdict, in the small park where opponents and supporters of the former leader got into the habit of gathering during the trial. Although joy was in order, so was lucidity.
Minimal vote difference
Indeed, polls show that this case was considered the least serious of all the cases in which Donald Trump is charged (management of confidential White House documents, electoral subversion in Washington and Georgia, etc.).
At the beginning of May, 20% of Donald Trump voters indicated, in an ABC News-Ipsos poll, that they could revise their choice in the event of their champion’s guilt, but nothing says that they will do so.
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Other surveys have found that a small number of respondents in the key constituencies of “undecided” and “independent” (neither Democrats nor Republicans) will be less likely to vote Republican if convicted, 17% respectively. and 11%. Certainly, this could make a difference in an election which will be decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in six swing states (“ Swing States ), but the campaign remains long.
“ To be honest, I’m skeptical that Biden will be re-elected “, admits Dimitri Kavadis, a 28-year-old social worker wearing a Ukrainian flag on his back. “ Americans are entrenched in their opinions. The polarization is such that it will be difficult to change their minds “.
“Political prisoner”
One thing is certain: this verdict offers a new weapon to the Biden camp at a time when the base of the 81-year-old outgoing president is showing signs of demobilization. Between now and November 5, the Democrat will be keen to hammer home that Donald Trump is a “ convicted felon » (“convicted criminal”), who risks prison, in the hope of creating a stir among his 2020 voters and the undecided.
He will have the opportunity during their first televised debate on June 27. “ There’s only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: go to the polls “, he wrote in a fundraising message posted on social networks Thursday evening.
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While denouncing a political trial which he will certainly appeal, the ex-businessman from Queens declared Thursday for his part that “ the real verdict will be rendered on November 5, by the people “. Later in the evening, he landed in “ political prisoner » in a campaign email.
Coincidentally with the calendar, his sentence must be announced on July 11 by Judge Juan Merchan, who supervised the trial. It’s four days before the opening of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee (Wisconsin)… where Donald Trump must be formally nominated as candidate for the White House. In this unprecedented context, it is difficult to predict the behavior of the electorate in the long term
