the essential
With the fall in interest rates and an adjustment in prices being confirmed, the real estate market is beginning to regain some color. But for professionals in the sector, we cannot yet speak of a recovery.
The first encouraging signs have finally arrived. The real estate market is – slowly – starting to recover. According to the Laforêt network, the sector has indeed experienced promising growth since the start of the year. In the first quarter of 2024, the group, which has 720 agencies in France, recorded an increase in supply of 4.8% nationally compared to the last quarter of 2023. It also noted a slight increase in real estate transactions.
This gradual restart of activity would be stimulated by three main levers. First, the drop in interest rates which gave new impetus to pending real estate projects. Then, the drop in prices that began last year, and which continues. And finally, an increase in the number of loans granted by banks.
Rates are loosening
The Crédit Logement Observatory / CSA confirms this trend. Since the start of the year, we have indeed seen a moderate drop in interest rates. From 4.24% in December 2023, the average mortgage rate rose to 4.13% in January 2024, then to 3.99% in February and to 3.90% in March. Banking establishments have clearly hastened to adapt their timetable to revitalize the market.
This drop had the effect of boosting the number of loans granted. Between December 2023 and March 2024, they increased by 68% in the new property market and by 33% in existing properties.
The Housing Credit Observatory / CSA
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Towards a price adjustment
Another parameter that is improving for future owners is the overall drop in property prices. The Laforêt network thus noted over the first three months of the year a decrease at the national level of 1.2% compared to the last quarter of 2023.
Although moderate, this price correction is a key indicator of a slight recovery in a still fragile market context. Of course, not all of the territory is in the same boat and there are great disparities depending on the region. Thus, the drop is particularly marked in Bordeaux (-2.3%) with an average price per square meter at €4,488, but also in Strasbourg (-2% to €3,611/m²), Metz (-1.9 % to €2,412/m²), Rennes (-1.5% to €4,108/m²), Paris (-1.5% to €9,711/m²)2) or even Lyon (-1.2% to €4,775/m²).
The forest
The drop in prices, however, is less spectacular in Toulouse (-0.8% to €3,595/m²), Rouen (-0.5% to €2,687/m²) or Lille (-0.7% to 3,371 €/m²). In certain cities, conversely, prices continue to rise. This is the case in Biarritz (+1.4% to €8,123/m²), Brest (+1.1% to €2,346/m²), Nice (+1% to €4,897/m²) and Marseille. (+1.1% to €3,811/m²).
Sales up very slightly
In terms of real estate transactions, a symbolic recovery at the national level was recorded from January to March 2024 by Laforêt on its network with a modest increase of 0.5% compared to the previous three months.
Buyers are also more inclined to negotiate the sale price. According to the group, negotiations today concern 8 out of 10 sales, compared to 6 last year. The only exceptions to the rule: accommodation located in popular areas or offering rare features, such as a top floor with a terrace or a house on the seafront.
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Despite these encouraging signals, the market is struggling to overcome certain obstacles such as stricter environmental regulations, halted construction, and restrictive housing credit conditions imposed by the High Financial Stability Council (HCSF). . We are therefore indeed witnessing a clearing in the real estate market but the clouds all around are still threatening.
