Neither the imminence of school holidays nor Euro football seem to have any impact on the desire of the French to express themselves during the legislative elections, the first round of which is scheduled for June 30. Participation is expected at nearly 65% (compared to 47.5% during the previous similar election) and 2.1 million proxy voting requests were made, almost six times more than in 2022.
“Let the sovereign people speak, there is nothing more republican“, declared Emmanuel Macron in an attempt to justify his decision to dissolve the National Assembly. Obviously, his fellow citizens have things to say to him… It remains to be seen who will benefit from this renewed interest in the polls, at the end of a campaign with the appearance of a national nervous breakdown? Was it another time, we would have relied on the mobilization of the French to counter the arrival of the National Rally in power? But for the first time in history, the strategy. of the Republican barrier could be completely reversed: more French people plan to vote against the candidates of the New Popular Front or against those of the presidential camp than against those of the RN, according to the latest reading from the Odoxa political barometer, a sign that the far right is no longer a foil in their eyes and that the strategy of demonizing the Lepenist party has worked perfectly.
“National power officially at stake”
For Florent Gougou, teacher-researcher in political science at Sciences Po Grenoble – UGA and at the Pacte laboratory, “These early elections appear in many respects to be an exceptional election. Since 2002, all legislative elections have been organized in the wake of a presidential vote, forming a four-round sequence in which the presidential election dictated the dynamics of the whole. But this time, the issue is not whether or not to give a majority to the President of the Republic: the powerful sanction vote against his action during the European elections has ruled out the prospect of an absolute majority supporting Emmanuel Macron. The question is to designate who will now govern France, whether it is the position of Prime Minister or the contours of the future government. In other words, with these anticipated legislative elections, national power is officially at stake“.
At this stage, while it is very likely that dozens of nationalist candidates will be elected in the first round this Sunday – and as many Macronist contenders eliminated at the same time – uncertainty remains over the scale of the RN’s victory. During the 2022 legislative elections, the far-right party achieved a historic breakthrough, obtaining 89 elected deputies and thus becoming the first opposition force.
A year after the death of a teenager during a police check, the situation remains tense in disadvantaged neighborhoods, as systemic problems have not been resolved. It could become explosive after the early legislative elections, especially if the RN comes to power.
This time, Ifop-Fiducial credits the Lepenists with a relative majority, of 220 to 260 seats, in which case Jordan Bardella indicated that he would not occupy the chair of Prime Minister. But Harris Interactive Toluna projects a hemicycle composed of 250 to 305 RN deputies, potentially an absolute majority (set at 289 seats), de facto forcing Emmanuel Macron to appoint his young rival to Matignon. It is easy to imagine the brutality of such cohabitation. Marine Le Pen has already shown the muscles, in an interview with Telegram: “Head of the armed forces, for the president, it is an honorary title since it is the Prime Minister who holds the purse strings.” Emmanuel Macron, who likes to portray himself as an inveterate boxer, also surely has no intention of taking up gloves…
The challenge of this first round will also be to see if the rallying of the Republicans “Ciotti channel” proves interesting for the RN. Éric Ciotti, still formally president of the LR, has invested 62 candidates in the framework of this union but how many will really be elected?
The rout of the presidential camp
The other unknown lies in the extent of the collapse of the presidential camp, leading to its possible… dissolution. Emmanuel Macron dreamed of a “judgment”. Not being suicidal by nature, he firmly believed that he could win his electoral bet and see his government strengthened. He was convinced, as Arnaud Mercier, professor of Information-Communication at the French Press Institute (Paris-Panthéon-Assas University) points out in an article published in The Conversationthat the voters were going “come back to reason”, what ““Abstentionists in favor of the central bloc would mobilize en masse” and “newly RN voters would return to better intentions”. Alas, the latter seem above all to want to make him pay, among other things, for his decision to call early elections.
In 2022, his coalition called Ensemble had obtained 245 seats (compared to 351 for La République en Marche in 2017). This time, pollsters predict a division of at least two in the number of deputies in the presidential camp. After discussions with the executives of his majority, Emmanuel Macron wants a “you RN, you LFI” in the second round. But this line could further fracture his camp. Many candidates from the outgoing majority could also refuse to take their orders – withdrawal or voting instructions – from the Parisian general staff.
Finally, this first round will tell whether the left, united despite their differences and the bitter hatred between their leaders, has convinced the voters and how many candidates will get through the first round and approach the second in pole position. Knowing that a left-wing government would also have a lot of difficulty governing in cohabitation with the president. A godsend for Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, who since the beginning of this process have been mainly aiming for the 2027 presidential election…
Ultimately, this June 30 could see the political field structured into two blocs, dominated by the extremes, reducing the central presidential party (and what remains of the moderate right) to smithereens. The head of state wanted a “clarification”. The first round should provide it to him…
