It only took Emmanuel Macron an hour to make the decision to dissolve the National Assembly after the victory of the far right in the European elections. A decision that the French president could regret given the first estimates which give the National Rally of Jordan Bardella the big winner in the anticipated legislative elections of June 30 and July 7. This dissolution not only undermined the presidential majority, but also sowed discord among other opponents of the RN such as La France insoumise (LFI) and Les Républicains (LR). Our colleagues from La Libre interviewed Franz-Olivier Giesbert, editorialist and former director of the newspaper Le Point, who analyzes the latest highlights of French politics. Interview.
On June 9, Emmanuel Macron decided unilaterally to dissolve the National Assembly. Was he trying a real “poker move” or did he know what he was doing?
I think Emmanuel Macron didn’t really have a strategy, it really seems like a rash decision. We were probably heading towards a dissolution in the fall which could have taken place in calmer conditions and would have allowed a debate to take place. Faced with the frightening result for him of the European elections I think he must have reacted, but it is a somewhat childish reaction. This dissolution is completely botched because there will be no debates. He probably thought that the surprise was in his favor, but I think that from this point of view he completely overestimates his abilities.
There is an anti-Macron current in France, which is normal because there is a sort of attrition. The French want to move on. This is also why he did not put his face on the posters, because he knows that it will not help him for the campaign. He dissolved the Assembly thinking it was clever, he also said to a business leader: “I threw a grenade between their legs”, except that the grenade exploded before between his own legs. If we look at the first polls, there is reason to be very worried in the camp of the President of the Republic.
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In the European elections, 42 percent of French people did not vote. Can we expect voters to wake up in the legislative elections, which would be beneficial to Macron?
Macron is trying to wake up voters by talking to them. The problem is that when you talk all the time, no one hears you. He should have met Jacques Pilhan, this extraordinary political advisor to Mitterrand, but also to Jacques Chirac, who had not listened to him during the previous dissolution of the National Assembly in 1997. He always said: “When you are unpopular, you should not speak.” Macron is unpopular and he talks all the time. He should delegate more – but he doesn’t know how to do that – by making his Prime Minister talk more. He tends to want to take center stage morning, noon, and evening, whereas that is not really the role of the president of the republic in a legislative election. Before possible cohabitation, the president must speak, but he must not campaign himself as if he were a candidate, he is not a candidate. We are in a sort of perversion of institutions.
Given the results of the latest polls and Emmanuel Macron’s missteps, is a victory for the National Rally inevitable?
We have the feeling that Macron will have done everything to push the National Rally to power. For his posterity, to which he is very attached, he risks being the one who leaves room for the National Rally. Since his re-election in 2022, we cannot say that he has tried to resolve in any way the problems on which the National Rally has thrived for years. He should have taken lessons from Mette Frederiksen, the Danish social-democrat Prime Minister who is doing an exceptional job controlling immigration and cutting public spending. Frederiksen is a left-wing woman, but nothing prevents her from being left-wing and leading intelligent policies that reduce the far right.
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Could the new left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front, be seen by voters as a more “moderate” alternative to the far right?
The far-left alliance has a completely insane program. According to some estimates, this represents 250 billion euros, that is to say three times more than the National Rally program. In addition, inside this coalition there are “S files”, members of the Islamist current… There is a far-left fascist side which is emerging and which is quite powerful in this coalition. . And the role of this coalition, if we are to believe the polls, is rather to play the scarecrow, which conversely will force people to vote very far to the right. I think that there is a majority of French people who are worried about the prospect of this extreme left coming to power. Raphaël Glucksmann was a very pleasant face, but he gave way to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to Olivier Faure… And this alliance does not appear at all to the French to be more moderate.
In my opinion, all this is voluntary, because I don’t think this so-called Popular Front wants to win for the moment. He prefers that it be Marine Le Pen to prepare the revolution, because there is a part of this coalition which is revolutionary and which will try to carry out actions once the National Rally is in power. If he comes to power, because I believe we must remain cautious. The National Rally could only have a relative majority, which would make things very complicated.
France would therefore be a country that would be ungovernable?
Everything is possible, of course. What is terrible is that Macron’s economic record is not exceptional, to say the least. He leaves a considerable debt. The French debt amounts to more than 3,000 billion and we must not forget that Macron is responsible for a third of this debt, which is considerable. The debt burden will increase and we are in a very complicated period. All we can hope for is the coming to power of people who will turn around the economy. And when the French see this assessment, I don’t think they think that it is Macron who will be able to restore order to the economy, because he himself is at the origin of this disorder.
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And in the event that the far right comes to power and France becomes effectively ungovernable, would Emmanuel Macron be forced to resign?
I wouldn’t have said that about other presidents, but he has something very strange in his behavior which is beyond rational, so indeed he could very well resign. But it’s still not sure. I have no certainty, including the outcome of the vote. There we are heading towards a relative majority of the RN, but it will perhaps have an absolute majority, because in this kind of situation, after a dissolution, France always gives a large victory to one camp. If a relative majority emerges, Macron will have great difficulty governing. He didn’t think about this, but according to the constitution he can no longer dissolve the Assembly for a year, so he will be missing his main weapon.
On the side of the “outsider” parties, internal tensions appear and seem to distance them from their objective, what is really happening?
Eric Ciotti made a personal attempt to have a certain number of deputies, which he will probably have. He will perhaps have his small group of parliamentarians, which will be an achievement. He will still be next to the group of Republicans (LR) who will still have elected officials, because this party is made up of “survivors” who ran against everyone and who managed to pass. On the side of France Insoumise (LFI), which is a far-left party, there are always purges, this is normal among Trotskyists. You regularly have purges, splits, but that is the life of far-left parties, and LFI is a far-left movement.
If the RN actually comes to power on July 7, can we already predict Marine Le Pen at the Élysée in 2027?
It’s very difficult to make predictions, especially in such turbulent times, so I would be careful not to make predictions. We are going to enter a period with lots of twists and turns, so I am waiting for the result of the legislative elections and then we can talk about the future.
