Even if François Legault remains unpopular, his party has succeeded in stopping the bleeding and even rebounding, so much so that the CAQ will begin the summer holidays with an increase in voting intentions.
A clearing pierces the clouds that have been floating above the training of Prime Minister François Legault for many months.
Although the Parti Québécois of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still sits at the top of the most recent Léger-The newspaper-TVA, conducted from May 31 to June 3, with 32% of voting intentions in Quebec, the CAQ regains three points and narrows the gap.
“It’s significant because they’ve been having difficulty for several months,” explains pollster Jean-Marc Léger. The CAQ is making a comeback, mainly taking away points from the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party.
“The less we see them in the media, the better they perform in the polls,” analyzes Mr. Léger.
At the same time, François Legault’s popularity remains low. Only 20% of those surveyed believe that he would make the best prime minister, compared to 26% for the PQ leader.
“Many people vote for the CAQ, are satisfied with the CAQ, but do not like François Legault,” notes Jean-Marc Léger.
The Quebec mystery
For its part, the PQ is stagnating. The formation of Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon remains the leading party among French-speakers, but it is tightening with the CAQ which regains 4% among this electorate.
“In the regions, it’s really a two-way fight between the PQ and the CAQ,” notes the pollster.
The Quebec region, however, gives pollsters headaches.
Last May, the CAQ regained momentum in the National Capital. The PQ obtained 32% of intentions and the CAQ 29%. Four weeks later, the CAQ lost 5 points.
“It’s swirling around a bit. It’s a region that varies quite a bit from one month to the next,” mentions Mr. Léger. The CAQ vote “is fragile” in Quebec, he said.
GND slows down its fall
In the midst of a crisis due to the resignation of co-spokesperson Émilise Lessard-Terrien, supporters of Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois had fallen in voting intentions at the beginning of May. QS was even tied with Eric Duhaime’s conservatives.
The GND’s gains during the QS National Council, which adopted the Saguenay Declaration, stopped the fall. The left-wing party takes 2 points in voting intentions and four points over the conservatives.
“At 14%, it returns to the threshold they had before the chicane,” specifies Jean-Marc Léger.
Young people divided
Despite this rise, QS continues to slowly lose the support of young people to the detriment of the Parti Québécois.
Only 29% of young people would vote for QS, compared to 27% for the PQ. Solidarity has already obtained 40% support among 18-24 year olds.
“Soon, the youth party will no longer be the party of QS. From survey to survey, it’s getting tighter,” points out Mr. Léger.
The survey also makes it possible to take the pulse of voters following the national councils which recently took place.
“We feel that that of QS was positive and that of the CAQ too. That of the liberals was rather negative, because people do not like austerity very much,” indicates Jean-Marc Léger.
During their national council, the Liberals announced that they wanted a return to budgetary “rigor”. They now obtain 15% of voting intentions, down two points.
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Web survey carried out from May 31 to June 3, 2024. among 1015 Quebecers aged 18 or over, using the LEO online panel. For comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1015 respondents is ± 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.
