With the recent drop in interest rates by 50 bps by the FED and a political calendar that is gradually tightening, the markets have no use forgeopolitical instability currently operating in the Middle East. With bitcoin at over $65,000 and Ethereum gradually approaching $3,000, some altcoins benefit from this contextmuch more favorable than in previous months. Today is an opportunity to take stock of the market, an assessment of the month of September while highlighting some perspectives to keep in mind for the month of October.
The market within a parallel channel
During our previous analyses, we had regularly analyzed the market on smaller scales of time or with horizontal levels. What we can see is the evolution of the market in a descending parallel channel since March 2024. Faced with a resistance threshold as well as technical support, the market essentially evolves in this technical configuration.
For the moment, it is appropriate to show patience on the total market capitalization. For an upward trend reversal to occur, the condition to be met is a breakage of resistance of the parallel channel, which will allow the market to take the direction of the 2,600 billion dollars. If he succeeds, we should expect new peaks for the end of 2024.
Moreover, if there is something to avoid, it is downward shift under the support of this channel. If the market is forced to take the bearish path, this will open the path towards $1.35 trillion.
Altcoins in full technical rebound
During our analysis last week, we did not have the opportunity to look at the configuration des altcoins. What we can see is the ability of this asset class to defend the support zone at $530 billion. Crossing a resistance threshold at $606 billion, the trend reversal would indeed appear confirm at present.
From now on, altcoins will have to make this old resistance, currently being crossed, a support area through a pullback technical. If altcoins manage to stay above, they will head towards the 2024 peak, particularly far from the one we experienced in 2021. This demonstrates the difference between bitcoin/Ethereum and altcoins, in a much less favorable position for many months.
Before reaching the 2024 highs, also watch the technical threshold at 680 billion dollars on which the market is likely to react temporarily.
Bitcoin dominance stabilizes
Regarding the king of cryptocurrencies, there is no no changes compared to last week. Always under the 58.23% dominancethe course is in a lateralization phase and contraction in volatility, which leaves a little more room than at the beginning of September for altcoins. For the moment, there is nothing particular to report.
The two levels to monitor are located at 58.23% and 56.30% dominance. The king of cryptocurrencies will maintain a strong position as long as it does not fall below the area shown in blue. For altcoins to benefit from a favorable period of rise, bitcoin will have to be brought to lose strength in terms of dominance. Even more so, as long as there are successive new highs on the weekly scale, the altcoin season will surely not see the light of day.
As for the ETH/BTC pair, there is no nothing to add to last week. Still finding itself on the weekly support zone, Ethereum maintains a position of sous-performance against bitcoin, but also against certain altcoins, registering very good performance in recent days such as TAO, SEI and many shitcoins.
The DeFi sector under resistance
Regarding altcoins in this sector, we can see a small difference compared to the TOTAL3 pairwhich demonstrates a reserved market interest in this sector. For the moment, the price is found under a technical resistance at $85 billion. To achieve a real change in dynamics in this sector, altcoins will have to cross $91 billion, which will open the way for 102 and 125 billion dollarsmajor monthly thresholds on which the market is currently in difficulty.
Although not shown directly on the graph, you can identify a canal descendant in which the price has been evolving for several months. Thus, the recovery of 91 billion dollars will allow the market to get out of the channel descending in order to operate a reversal of the trendwhich will put an end to the bearish dynamic in which the price has been evolving for several months through descending troughs and peaks.
Overall, the September wasn’t great for the entire market. However, in recent days, certain assets have started to rise again, which explains the change of dynamic on the capitalization of altcoins. With ether underperforming and bitcoin maintaining its dominance highs, the major signs of a trend reversal are not yet present. Will the month of October be favorable for a real change in dynamics and an extension of the rebounds that we have been witnessing for some time? There are fortes chancesindeed, that the month of October is much more efficient than September.
