Canada as the 51st American state? The Republicans would not be in power anytime soon!

Since the re-election of Donald Trump, his proposals via social media on a possible annexation of the Panama Canal, Greenland and Canada have caused a lot of discussion – and the issue has returned to the forefront following the announcement of the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

It seems strange that an anti-interventionist of his caliber would take up the old refrains of American imperialism from past centuries and serve us expansionist rehash with Theodore Roosevelt, William McKinley and James Polk.

For Canadians who are history buffs, this kind of talk takes us back to the time of the “Oregon Question” during the first half of the 19th century.^e century. Various American presidents, including James Polk (1845-1849), claimed that the northern border of this state should extend uninterruptedly to Alaska, including a large part of the current province of British Columbia.

Read more: “Governor Justin Trudeau”: Trump’s statements under the magnifying glass of psychoanalysis

Tempered reactions

It is hardly surprising that the leaders of Panama, Greenland and Canada have admonished the president-elect – rather mildly, on the Canadian side.

Justin Trudeau, faced with mockery from Donald Trump calling him “governor of the 51st state”, responded by uploading a video dating from 2010 which explains Canada to Americans in a slightly condescending tone.

Faced with the threat of having ruinous customs tariffs imposed on them, much more serious than the annexationist bluster, Justin Trudeau and two ministers invited themselves to Donald Trump’s villa in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.

While some Canadians have a favorable opinion of the United States, few want their country to join the American Union and become a 51^e État.

But assuming that is the case, what would be the electoral consequences for the United States?

Democrats would benefit

However, the answer would hardly please Donald Trump or the Republican Party. Because a possible annexation could lead to the definitive marginalization of this party in national elections.

Indeed, the creation of a 51^e “State of Canada” would profoundly modify the electoral map in favor of the Democratic Party and place the Republicans in a situation of almost permanent defeat.

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To understand, we only need to consider the place that this possible 51 could occupy^e State in American institutions.

The integration of Canada would be particularly delicate in the House of Representatives. Seats are allocated based on the US census, i.e. one seat per 761,169 inhabitants in 2020.

With its 41 million inhabitants, Canada would be allocated around 54 seats, two more than California. If we add the two Canadian senators, Canada would become a real political powerhouse in Congress. Nothing good in prospect for the Republicans.

Of course, this calculation assumes that Canadians would be satisfied with only 54 MPs and two senators instead of their current 338 MPs and 105 senators. It also assumes that the Americans would accept that their House would no longer be limited to 435 representatives, and that they would cease their almost constant battles for the redistricting of the electoral map. But it doesn’t matter.

Most Canadians would vote Democratic

Now let’s look at the impact on the US elections. As there is little chance that Canadian political culture will rub off on that of the Americans, Canadians would then submit to American-style bipartisanship.

However, the Canadian electorate leans largely towards the left of the political spectrum. Certainly, Canadian conservatives would then vote Republican, but Liberal, New Democrat, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters would very much prefer the Democratic Party.

It is here that the “51^e State” is becoming a big problem for Donald Trump. Since the merger of Canada’s right-wing parties in 2003, the Conservative Party of Canada has received an average of 35% of the popular vote, compared to 63% of the votes on the center and left.

In an American context, Canadian representation in the House of Representatives would then be divided between 36 Democratic seats and 18 for the Republicans.

Retrospectively since 2000, such a gap would have transformed all Republican majorities, except that of 2010, into Democratic majorities. Faced with largely center-left Canadians, it would be difficult for the Republicans to obtain a majority in the House of Representatives.

For the same reasons, Canada would undoubtedly send two Democratic senators to the Senate. Nothing that would profoundly change the portrait, except that the majorities are often decided by a single vote. The gain would therefore not be negligible, especially since the senatorial vote is essential for the confirmation of candidates to the Supreme Court and the cabinet.

The Canadianization of the Electoral College

And what about this big question: how would the State of Canada modify the Electoral College?

In the United States, the president is not elected by direct universal suffrage, but by the indirect vote of the Electoral College. In this College, each state has a number of votes corresponding to the total of its representatives in the House plus its two senators.

However, in almost every state, the winner of the popular vote in each state takes that state’s entire vote in the Electoral College. Where would the 56 Canadian votes go?

Again, the centrist and left-wing tendencies of the Canadian electorate would largely favor a Democratic candidate for president each time. Thus, the two Republican presidential victories of 2000 and 2004 would have gone to the Democratic camp. As for Donald Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024, they would have been too slim to be certain: the presence of Canada would redefine the electoral mathematics to such an extent that the new margins of error do not allow any conclusions to be drawn.

So perhaps it is time for Donald Trump to recognize that Canada is a different country, with its own history and political culture, and which cannot join the American Union without forcing change.

It is to be hoped that Donald Trump admits that his lame taunts about Canada minimize the seriousness of a possible completely unnecessary trade war that would cost hundreds of billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs on both sides of the border.

Let us also hope that he will see that the hurtful provocations against the old strategic allies on which American power relies do not bring him anything.

But if logic is not enough for him, let us still hope that he will listen to his own electoral instincts.