The first round of early legislative elections delivered its verdict on Sunday, June 30, with a large victory for the National Rally.according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP, the far-right party and its allies (33.2% of the votes) ahead of the New Popular Front, bringing together the left (28.1%), and Emmanuel Macron’s camp (21%), during this vote marked by a sharp increase in participation. The Republicans who have not formed an alliance with the RN stand at 10%. Seat projections for the future National Assembly should be taken with great caution: the new configuration of the hemicycle will be partly conditioned by the withdrawal of candidates in the second round, in particular to block the RN. Here are the big unknowns of the ballot.
Can the RN win an absolute majority?
“The French have rendered a final verdict”, declared Jordan Bardella, after the arrival in the lead of the RN in the first round. He called on voters to give an absolute majority to his party, judging that the second round will be “one of the most decisive in the entire history of the Fifth Republic”At this stage, the far-right party and its allies could see between 230 and 280 seats in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Talan projection for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24 and LCP. But other polling institutes do not rule out the possibility that the RN and its allies could reach 289 seats, synonymous with an absolute majority.
“It’s very difficult to say”confirms political scientist Luc Rouban, cited by AFP, who notes that “the arguments of the republican front or the fascist danger proved ineffective in the first round.” This specialist recalls the approximately 10% collected by the independent LR right. “I would be surprised if these voters turned to the left to block the RN. If anyone has a reserve army, it’s the RN.” According to his colleague Martial Foucault, “It is not so much the order of arrival that will count but the difference in votes: when the RN has a lead of at least 3 000 votes and more, victory seems within reach” for the second round.
A week before the vote, Jordan Bardella declared that he would accept the post of prime minister only if he had an absolute majority. Questioned on this point, his ally Eric Ciotti simply mentioned a country “ungovernable” in the event of a relative majority. The equation for the second round is further complicated by the agreements and withdrawals, which will transform a large number of triangulars into duels.
Has the New Popular Front lost all hope?
The New Popular Front is credited with 28.1% at the national level, five points behind the RN (33.2%) but far ahead of Ensemble (21%). “The victory of the New Popular Front is possible”assured Marine Tondelier, national secretary of the Ecologists-EELV, judging that the constitution of the alliance on the left had allowed the extreme right to retreat in relation to the European elections. “We must give an absolute majority to the New Popular Front, because it is the only alternative”also attacked Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France insoumise.
“A reversal of the trend seems difficult. There is no reversal between a first and a second round”believes Brice Teinturier, deputy CEO of Ipsos, on the set of France Télévisions. This, in any case, has never happened, except for the legislative elections of 1978, when the right finally won narrowly after a good first round by the left. “A reversal would mean that the New Popular Front would win over the RN. Quite frankly, it’s hard to see how that could happen.”
At a minimum, several personalities from this vast coalition prefer to mention other objectives. “We have (…) the imperative duty to ensure that the extreme right does not manage to have a majority in the National Assembly”declared François Hollande in front of his supporters, after coming out on top with 37.63% of the votes in the 1st constituency of Corrèze.
What will the third-placed candidates do?
In more than 300 constituencies, three candidates have qualified for the second round because they have crossed the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters. But this does not mean that three-way races will be organized in all these constituencies.
The New Popular Front, in fact, announced withdrawals when its candidates were in third position, so as not to favor the RN candidates. “We will withdraw our candidacy, in all circumstances, wherever and in whatever case. Our instructions are simple, direct and clear. Not one vote, not one more seat for the RN.”hammered Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The leader of the Ecologists, Marine Tondelier, called for the “construction of a new republican front”. It remains to be seen whether these instructions will be properly applied by the candidates concerned, on the ground.
“Not one vote should go to the National Rally” in the second round of the legislative elections, said the Prime Minister and leader of the outgoing majority, Gabriel Attal. The latter called for “disclaimer of [ses] candidates whose remaining in third position would have led to the election of a National Rally MP against another candidate who defends as [le camp présidentiel] the values of the Republic”without specifying the number. Including in the case of LFI candidates? “If they respect the values of the Republic”the Prime Minister’s entourage simply responded to France Télévisions, suggesting future decisions on a case-by-case basis. The Republicans, finally, gave no voting instructions.
Can the “Republican Front” Still Work?
The withdrawals of candidates to avoid a triangular and provoke a duel against the RN can, at the margin, “play on the level and number of seats that the RN would obtain”estimates Brice Teinturier. Enough to result in a majority from the left bloc or from the ranks of Renaissance? “AGiven the results of the first round, this is very unlikely.”
Furthermore, will the voting instructions of the various political parties be followed at the ballot box? In an Ipsos poll conducted from June 27 to 28 and published Sunday evening, 53% of Ensemble voters want their candidate to remain in the event of a three-way race against the New Popular Front and the RN. Only 8% want him to withdraw in favor of the NFP candidate (regardless of the party he comes from) and 21% want him to withdraw in favor of the NFP candidate only if he does not come from La France Insoumise.
Similarly, 51% of New Popular Front voters want their candidate to stay in the race against his opponents when he came in third place behind Ensemble and the RN. In this configuration, 34% want the NFP candidate to withdraw in favour of Ensemble to block the RN. For the voters concerned, there are so many dilemmas in perspective.
Can participation still increase?
This first round was marked by a strong participation of 65.8%, at a level not seen since 1997 (67.9%). It is also 18 points more than in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. Abstention is more marked among 25-34 year olds, with almost one in two people who did not go to vote (49% ). Workers are the social category that abstained the most, with 46% of them not voting, followed by employees, at 42%.
Turnout traditionally drops slightly in the second round, but the intensity of the vote could change that this time. The possible consequences are, however, difficult to measure. “The high participation has dampened the National Rally a little,” points out Brice Teinturier, but overall, she “has favored all political parties”. There would therefore be few reserves of votes left, according to observers. “The political offer was so reduced this time that there are very few vote reserves”judges his colleague Martial Foucault.
