Published on June 30, 2024 at 10:32 p.m.
At a time when activity and inflation signals are still blowing hot and cold, when political and geopolitical risks are at our borders, the resilience of financial markets is surprising or worrying. Inflection by central banks, even if timid, and improvement in the visibility and prospects of business activity are the main ingredients, capable of warming up the temperature necessary for “rate reduction”. Does this mean that the rate cuts initiated by the European and Swiss central banks are premature while the American Federal Reserve has not yet risked it? The desynchronized decline responds to domestic considerations (knowing that the synchronized increase was justified by an international context having a global impact) confronted with disparate consequences depending on the regions and the nature of the systems.
In Switzerland, the sources of warming (inflation, foreign trade, strength of the franc, real estate market) are under control, liquidity is adjusted to economic dynamics, and excess savings are once again remunerated. Between the favored individual saver and the entrepreneur limited in his investment impulses, the fall in rates must facilitate risk-taking by businesses, projecting Swiss entrepreneurs forward. They have already not missed the shift in investment in R&D, personal and artificial intelligence, fueling their industrial positioning strengths (pharma & health sector, innovation and precision) when the winds were contrary.
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