More than two million proxies were registered between June 10 and 26, the Interior Ministry announced on Thursday. This is twice as much as during the 2022 legislative election, which suggests a higher participation this Sunday, June 30. In any case, this is what several opinion surveys are announcing: participation would oscillate between 60 and 65% in the first round of the legislative elections, or around fifteen points more compared to the first round of these same previous elections. This possible boom in participation on June 30 could lead to a multiplication of cases of triangulars (three qualified candidates) for the second round.
For what ? To fully understand, let’s go back to the voting rules. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round of the legislative elections (more than 50% of the votes cast, and a number of votes equal to a quarter of those registered), it is the two candidates with the most votes who qualify for the second round. But if a third candidate obtains a number of votes at least equal to 12.5% of those registered, he can also remain in the second round.
This is where the turnout rate comes into play. If turnout is higher, the threshold for qualifying for the second round becomes mechanically easier to reach. With 47.5% turnout in 2022, a historically low rate, a candidate in third place had to obtain nearly 27% of the votes cast to reach the second round. Only eight constituencies in France had experienced this scenario, and none in Brittany. If turnout increases by fifteen points this year, the qualification threshold drops to around 20% of the vote, making the possibilities of three-way races much more likely.
For example, in 2022, with a turnout inflated by fifteen points and a similar distribution of votes, Brittany would have experienced three-way races in four constituencies in the second round: Lamballe-Loudéac (3rd in Côtes d’Armor), Saint-Malo (7th in Ille-et-Vilaine), Lorient (5th in Morbihan) and Hennebont-Gourin (6th in Morbihan).
Triangulars favorable to the RN?
In Brittany, triangular second rounds could potentially benefit the National Rally. The party has never made it past the first round in the region but was in third place in twenty out of twenty-seven Breton constituencies in 2022.
Another factor could favor cases of triangulars: the low number of candidates per constituency. With these elections organized in three weeks, this is the case in many constituencies, particularly in Brittany. In the constituencies of Lannion, Lorient and Vitré, only four political forces nominated candidates: Ensemble, the New Popular Front, the National Rally and Lutte Ouvrière. With fewer choices offered to voters, there will be less dispersion of votes between different candidates.
Will qualified candidates remain?
In the event of a triangular, an unknown remains: will one of the three candidates qualified in the second round withdraw to block another? The strategies of the different parties are not all known. Environmentalists and socialists have positioned themselves in favor of a withdrawal to defeat the RN. Elsewhere, vagueness persists, notably in the presidential camp which refuses to take a position before the first round. This Sunday evening, the cards will undoubtedly be reshuffled, case by case.
