Will the big replacement announced in the hemicycle of the National Assembly for the evening of Sunday July 7 spare the deputy for the second constituency of Landes? Elected since 2017 in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s coming to power, Lionel Causse could be one of the victims of the rejection that the President of the Republic inspires in the eyes of voters.
In this constituency in the South-West of Landes where 125,025 people were registered to vote (for 123,048 in the 2022 legislative elections), the results of the European elections which precipitated the dissolution of the Assembly are marked by a strong surge in the National Rally vote. On June 9, 2024, the far-right party came in first, with 27.76% of the votes cast and 18,639 voters.
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Ludovic Biesbrouck, departmental delegate of the National Rally in Landes, candidate in the second constituency of Landes.
With 8,523 votes more than the 10,116 ballots counted in favor of the National Rally for the first round of the legislative ballot in June 2022, Ludovic Biesbrouck thus has the hope of becoming the first candidate from this party to appear in the second round of an election for deputy of this constituency.
Uncertain triangular
If the voting methods are different between the European proportional and the two rounds of the legislative elections, the possibility exists that the candidate of the presidential majority will not appear in the final choice.
For a triangular to be organized on Sunday July 7, the milestone to be reached in the first round is in fact set at 12.5% of those registered, or 15,628 people if we stick to the figure recorded for Europeans in this constituency which brings together the municipalities of Grand Dax, Maremne Adour Côte Sud and Seignanx.
The 10,753 voters in the second constituency who voted on June 9 in favor of the Renaissance list (16.02%) will therefore not be enough for Lionel Causse and Maëva Dedieu to remain in the second round.
Despite the mobilization of the last few days and the support of the mayor of the Landes sub-prefecture, Julien Dubois, and other municipal elected officials, it cannot be excluded that this duo labeled Ensemble will suffer in municipalities such as Dax, Seignosse or Soorts-Hossegor thousands of votes remained loyal to the Republicans (6.23% to the Europeans of June 9 in this constituency), here represented by Marc Vernier and Béatrice Albaladejo.
Nathalie Guironnet
Candidate for the Republicans with Béatrice Albaladejo, Marc Vernier is a well-known face among the Landais in the second constituency.
A projection carried out by the daily “Le Monde” shows, however, that this minimum number of votes should be exceeded by the New Popular Front. The aggregation of votes collected by the left and environmentalist lists on June 9 thus amounts to 20,909 voters, or 31.12% of the votes.
This percentage is, within 1 point, that which Jean-Marc Lespade obtained in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections. Associated in this new campaign with the socialist municipal councilor of the Dacquoise opposition Axelle Verdière-Bargaoui, the former mayor and communist departmental councilor of Tarnos then failed by 2,262 votes behind Lionel Causse in the second round.
The unknown of the second round
It would be wrong to believe, however, that this second constituency is already won by the New Popular Front. Faced with a situation which could prove unprecedented, in a strange national context, the question of the postponement of votes from one Sunday to the next remains full and complete.
On the one hand, Jean-Marc Lespade could count on his local opponents from La France insoumise to show how much he has nothing to do with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. But his membership in the Communist Party, the support of elected Landes socialists as well as the program of the New Popular Front could limit his contribution of votes at a time when he would be in a position to block the extreme right.
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Jean-Marc Lespade.
This fight remains the first led by Lionel Causse in this “democratic moment” desired by the President of the Republic. As a reminder, he was one of the rare deputies of the presidential majority to vote against the latest immigration law submitted for approval by the National Assembly.
Landmarks
The candidates. Ludovic Biesbrouck (National Rally), Lionel Causse (Together), Stéphane David (Reconquest), Pascal Demangeot (Workers’ Struggle), Dominique Lecuona (regionalist), Jean-Marc Lespade (New Popular Front), Marc Vernier (Les Républicains).
2022 results. In the second round, Lionel Causse (Ensemble, 51.94%) was ahead of Jean-Marc Lespade (Nupes, 48.06%). Abstention amounted to 48.50%.
In the first round (62,781 votes cast; 47.57% abstention), Lionel Causse (33.73%) came first, ahead of Jean-Marc Lespade (30.29%), Véronique Rivoire (National Rally, 16 .11%), Marc Vernier (Les Républicains, 4.79%), Sophie de Brosses (Resistons, 4.36%), Muriel Loubet (Reconquest, 4.12%), Christian Laffont (Various right, 1.97% ), Jonathan Harang (Animalist Party, 1.50%), Jean-Pierre Etchoimborde (Union for France, 1.44%), Dominique Lecuona (Occitan Party, 0.91%) and Pascal Demangeot (Workers’ Struggle, 0. 78%).
