Legislative elections 2024. In the 3rd constituency of Haute-Garonne, we are remaking the match (or almost)

With 11 applicants on the starting line, it’s here, in the 3rd constituency of Haute-Garonne, which we find the most candidates in the early legislative elections on Sunday June 30 and July 7, 2024 in the ten electoral territories of the department. Nothing really new that said, since in 2022, there were already 12.

Vignon-Roby, let’s do the match again

Member of the best (re)elected majority of the entire department in 2022 (55.71% of the votes), Corinne Vignon found herself, against all expectations, facing the rebellious young municipal councilor of Toulouse Agathe Roby in the second round. Nearly 5,000 votes then separated the two protagonists… who will battle it out again, two years later, for a return match.

Former mayor of Flourens, Corinne Vignon, 61 years old, was elected deputy for this constituency in 2017 (52.97% of the votes), beating Laurence Arribagé in a duel at daggers drawn, and being the subject of a campaign of slanderous denunciationwhich earned its rival a court conviction at the start of 2024.

Who are Corinne Vignon and Agathe Roby?

In the Assembly, the MP stood out for her recurring mobilization in favor of condition animale, and she had also been an “ambassador” of the first pension reform project, put on hold with the Covid pandemic. As in 2017, Corinne Vignon returns to the electoral fight with Vincent Terrail-Novès, the influential mayor of Balma and 1st vice-president of Toulouse Métropole, departmental boss of Renaissance.

In front of her, Agathe Roby, 37, is a historian specializing in the Middle Ages. Municipal and metropolitan councilor of Toulouse, this France Insoumise activist co-chairs the opposition group AMC (Citizen Municipalist Alternative) at town hall. His deputy is departmental councilor Aurélien Taravella, member of Raphaël Glucksmann’s Place publique… party.

The least left-hand circus in Toulouse

Remember that the 3rd constituency, which goes from quartiers costus from the Pink City (Côte Pavée, Saint-Étienne, but also les Carmes) to the rural sector of Verfeil, via balm and its hinterland, made exception in the political landscape of the department.

Supposed to be the most right-wing — or rather least on the left — from Toulouse, it was the constituency of a certain Jean-Luc Moudenc, elected here as a deputy from 2012 to 2014, before passing the torch to his deputy Laurence Arribagé on his return to the Capitol.

Laurence Arribagé ineligible, what will his voters do?

It is also one of the only two constituencies in the department where LRs not aligned with the RN did not ignore it. In the absence of former MP Laurence Arribagé, sentenced to five years of ineligibility, he is a 23-year-old, Clement Delmasa master’s student in law, who will wear the colors of the Independent Republicans.

Note that in the meantime, the former deputy of Jean-Luc Moudenc had slammed the door of the Republicans to rally Horizons… and the presidential majority. What will his voters do on Sunday? That’s the whole question.

The RN spoilsport

As in 2022, the third man in the ballot here will undoubtedly be a woman, since the National gathering will again be represented by Stéphanie Alarcona 49-year-old trustee assistance who intends to find a place at the Palais Bourbon.

To play spoilsport, he will have to do even better than Jordan Bardella, who finished in second position in the Europeans here, but did not meet the fateful threshold of 12.5% ​​of those registered, necessary to climb to 2nd. round.

Reconquest, Resist… and the others

If the RN dreams of a second round, it will also have to deal with a stronger dispersion of votes here than elsewhere: in addition to the independent LRs, the party Reconquest will be represented by a new head, that of Philippe Soleri56-year-old librarian.

Also note that this is one of the three constituencies in the department where Let’s resistJean Lassalle’s stable, will be there, represented by Philippe Maurya 46-year-old job seeker, formerly a salesman.

Among the five other candidates: the musician Domitille Allorant will carry the voice of Équinoxe, a new “independent environmentalist party” in this campaign, and Little Adrada will be, as in 2022, the local figure of Lutte Ouvrière.

Finally, let us recall the astonishing candidacy of Baptiste Robert, 36 years. The famous ethical hacker, who calls himself “center left”, and who has hundreds of thousands of subscribers on social networks. Can he turn his followers into voters?

The candidates for the 3rd constituency (part of Toulouse, Balma, Verfeil…) are :

• Stéphanie Alarcon (RN): assistant trustee. Substitute: Patrice Gabrielli.
• Little Adrada (LO): school teacher. Alternate: Olivier Grimoux, measurement technician.
• Domitille Allorant (Equinoxe): musician. Alternate: Alexis Ferté.
• Baptiste Robert (Unlabeled): ethical hacker, cybersecurity researcher. Alternate: Christelle Pujol, sales representative.
• Clement Delmas (LR): Master of Law student. Substitute: Paola Crouzatier.
• Corinne Vignon (Renaissance, presidential majority): outgoing deputy since 2017. Substitute: Vincent Terrail-Novès (mayor of Balma and 1st vice-president of Toulouse Métropole).
• Philippe Maury (Let’s resist): job seeker, former salesperson. Substitute: Caroline Cruzel.
• Philippe Soleri (Reconquest): librarian. Substitute: Grégoire Sy-Cholet.
• Némouthé Christmas. Substitute: Marie-Christine William
• Agathe Roby (LFI, New Popular Front): historian, municipal and metropolitan councilor of Toulouse. Alternate: Aurélien Taravella (Public square).
• Marie-Pierre Bouchet. Alternate: Solange Nadal

What did the last polls give here?

During the 2022 Legislative Elections, it was the Insoumise Agathe Roby who came out on top in the first round here (31.60%), narrowly ahead of the outgoing Renaissance Corinne Vignon (29.27%), who managed to gain the upper hand on her rival Laurence Arribagé (16.10%), who was at the time boss of LR. Stéphanie Alarcon and the RN then peaked at 8.77%, Camille Dulon and Reconquête at 4.90%.

Change of course during the Europeans, on June 9: the PS candidate Raphaël Glucksmann came first, with 20.10% of the votes, ahead of Jordan Bardella for the RN (17.33%) and Valérie Hayer for the majority ( 16.94%). Manon Aubry (LFI) and François-Xavier Bellamy (LR) received 10.39% and 9.38% of the votes respectively. Who will Glucksmann’s voters go to… and the abstainers? This is the challenge of this first round, which could also, if participation is high, end in a triangular.

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