Should we expect a gas crisis this winter in Europe? “Some countries are not supportive enough”

“As long as we import the majority of our gas, this risk of shortage will exist,” explains João Leão, the Member of the Court responsible for the audit. And at this level, no miracle. Despite the large investments made in recent years in renewable energy, Europe remains very dependent on natural gas for heating or electricity. However, almost 80% of the gas consumed here must be imported.

This energy dependence is one of the EU’s Achilles heels and Russia understood this perfectly by launching its offensive in Ukraine in February 2022. A few months later, Europe experienced one of its most serious energy crises, with wholesale gas prices peaking at 339 euros per megawatt hour (compared to 51 euros twelve months earlier).

A slate of 390 billion euros in 2022

By reducing its consumption and diversifying its sources of supply, the European Union has avoided the worst. But at an exorbitant price. In 2022 alone, Member States spent 390 billion euros to reduce the energy bills of households and businesses. Little by little, prices fell again without reaching pre-crisis levels. “Fortunately, we have not experienced a major gas shortage”welcomes João Leão. Does this mean that the EU’s gas supply is secure today? The answer is no, I’m afraid”.

Sanctions against Russia: the European Union attacks Russian liquefied gas, but not too much

For many, European dependence on Russia would thus have been replaced by another dependence. That in the United States, Qatar, or other countries which massively supply Europe with LNG, liquefied natural gas. This dependence is, however, considered less risky by the Court of Auditors than that of pipelines coming directly from Russia and which were suddenly cut off. “LNG is based on a global market”, recalls João Leão. The LNG tankers, filled with this liquefied gas, go everywhere in the world, and more specifically where the offer is the most interesting. Europe must therefore face this new reality, that of price volatility and competition with other continents. But it no longer depends on a single country for its supply.

Note that for the Court, the recent sanctions against Russian LNG will not have much effect on the European market. The majority of Russian liquefied gas arriving on European soil is therefore intended to be exported elsewhere. Another challenge highlighted by the report: the need to decarbonize part of European gas consumption. The auditors thus highlight the insufficient progress in carbon capture, use and storage (CUSC), “which could pose a problem for the security of supply in the long term”.

Finally, the Court of Auditors is concerned “of a lack of solidarity” Member States among themselves. “Many member states are still reluctant to sign bilateral solidarity agreementsunderlines the report. Some of them would even consider interrupting supplies to a neighboring state in an emergency”. And the future does not look rosy, with the rise of extreme parties in many European countries. All eyes are on a major player in the energy sector, France.

In France, cohabitation in power will be “extremely difficult if the RN wins”

Even if the candidate for the post of Prime Minister, Jordan Bardella, is ambiguous on the subject, the national gathering, at the top of the polls for the legislative elections, has in its program the exit of France from the European energy market. “We do not comment on political factsexplains the Court of Auditors. But it is clear that solidarity is the basis of this European market. France has significant physical energy connections with its neighbors and the country also benefits from this in the event of a crisis”.