the essential
The La Niña weather phenomenon is predicted in 2024 by meteorologists and will follow another phenomenon called El Niño. What will be its impact on the weather on a global scale and in France in particular?
They make rain and shine on the planet. El Niño will be replaced by La Niña during 2024, meteorologists from the World Meteorological Organization have announced. They estimate it is 60% likely that La Niña will develop between June and September.
To understand the interest and consequences of this forecast, some explanations are necessary.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climatic phenomenon characterized by abnormally high surface water temperatures in the South Pacific. Tropical winds push water from east to west towards Australia. Years when El Niño is present are associated with scorching temperatures globally. Thus, since June 2023, a temperature record has been broken every month on a global scale and 2023 was, by far, the hottest year ever observed on Earth, explains the World Meteorological Organization. El Niño occurs every seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months.
What is La Niña?
La Niña is a climatic phenomenon characterized by abnormally low water temperatures in the central Pacific. It is associated with winds, pressure and precipitation. La Niña episodes occur every four to five years and generally last one to two years.
What will the changes be?
The arrival of La Niña will have varying consequences in several regions of the world. The impact is not the same depending on the region where we are on Earth. Some will be warmer, others colder, wetter or drier. As the arrival of La Niña is expected between July and September, its effect will take time to spread around the world.
Read also :
Summer 2024: what weather can you expect? Météo France forecasts revealed
What will happen in France?
The weather we have experienced in Western Europe, including in France, since autumn 2023 is typical weather in an El Niño year: disturbed weather, very humid and windy but rather mild. With the diminishing influence of El Niño, it is possible to hope for a drier summer than in recent months. The consequences of La Niña will not be felt, at best, until the end of summer. During previous La Niña years, Futura Sciences recalls, French winters often started earlier in the season and were colder. So should we expect early cold in November-December? It’s possible but not certain either. During the winters of 2020, 2021 and 2022, marked by the presence of La Niña, temperatures remained above the seasonal averages in France.
