Lhe results of the European elections in Gironde place the RN in a winning position for the legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. From two deputies out of 12 currently, he intends to increase to at least six seats. In the presidential majority, on the contrary, we want to try to save the furniture: of the seven leavers ready to leave, how many will arrive? As for the left, and its three deputies elected under the Nupes label, for the moment, it is very vague. Candidates have from Wednesday June 12 to Sunday June 16 to submit their application.
1D constituency (Bordeaux Nord, Bruges, Le Bouscat)
Thomas Cazenave, the outgoing LREM (replaced by Alexandra Martin since he became Minister of Public Accounts) returned to the campaign this Monday. He is among the members of the presidential majority least in danger for these legislative elections. It benefits from a favorable sociology in a sector where Valérie Hayer, the head of the list in the European elections, has limited the damage. In the 2022 legislative elections, he flirted with 60% against an environmentalist candidate nominated by Nupes. That said, the total number of votes from the left for Europeans is nevertheless higher than that of the majority. This remains a favorable waiver.
2e constituency (Bordeaux center)
Mathematically, Nicolas Thierry, the environmentalist deputy, is not in danger. But politics obeys other rules than those of additions. The fate of this ardent defender of Nupes is partly linked to the agreements between the left-wing partners. As of Sunday, he also appealed to the national apparatuses to reach this agreement. With the other left-wing Girondin deputies, he endeavored to bring the agreement to life locally, despite the tensions. Will they manage to make themselves heard? If not, will they free themselves from national instructions? The fate of the vote depends on it.
“Of the seven leaving the majority ready to leave, how many will arrive? »
3e constituency (Bordeaux, Bègles, Villenave and Talence)
Same equation for Loïc Prud’homme, the Insoumis deputy for Bègles, Villenave, Talence. Favorable balloting on paper except that there is indeed this problem of agreements. He has for him a solid anchor worked over time, since he has been in office since 2017. On Sunday, he made contact with the other Nupes deputies and Jean-Luc Gleyze, the president of the Department, with whom all had fiercely discussed the Nupes agreements in the 2022 legislative elections.
4e constituency (right bank of Bordeaux)
Alain David, the third Nupes deputy, from the ranks of the PS, “will stand up against the macronie and the RN”. In Lormont, the RN takes the lead ahead of LFI. Reverse order on Cenon, the PS being relegated to third position. “Alone, we can’t do much,” recognizes Alain David. Especially since the RN intends to tilt the right bank. Julie Rechagneux, just elected European deputy, also elected in Lormont, should lead this lightning campaign.
5e and 11e constituencies (Médoc and Haute Gironde)
RN Edwige Diaz, MP for Haute Gironde, and Grégoire de Fournas, MP for Médoc, are literally buoyed by the results of the European elections, which suggests a re-election without too much difficulty. If the vice-president of the RN leaves a relative mystery surrounding his candidacy, the Médocain returned to the campaign this Monday, even before the opinion of the investiture commission. In these two constituencies in particular, the difficulty for movements like Renaissance is to find volunteers to go to battle.
6e and 7e constituencies (Mérignac and Pessac)
Bérangère Couillard, former minister, and Éric Poulliat, the outgoing minister, have not won a presidential majority. But they benefit from a slight advantage which is explained by the results of the vote on their respective perimeters supported by the results obtained in 2022. Both have seniority in the position on their side. They come from the 2017 class of En Marche which became Renaissance. On the sixth, the danger could come from the RN. On the seventh, from the left, provided that it leaves united.
8e constituency (Arcachon Basin)
The match promises to be closer than two years ago on the Arcachon basin for the outgoing Renaissance Sophie Panonacle. The RN makes its constituency one of its objectives. Laurent Lamara, already a candidate in 2022, will not wait for the RN investiture committee. He launched into the campaign on Monday. The treasurer of the RN in Gironde intends to capitalize on the good scores recorded by Jordan Bardella in the sector. The latter is in the lead in Arcachon, La Teste and signs very high scores in the Mios and Biganos sectors. Sophie Panonacle has in her favor the work accomplished since her first mandate in 2017. One of the keys to the election is in the hands of the Republicans. They are not in a position to win, but will indeed influence the outcome.
9e constituency (South-Gironde)
The RN wave swept away everything on the left bank of the Garonne, in South Gironde. The socialist bastions of Jean-Luc Gleyze in Captieux (30% for the RN), Isabelle Dexpert in Bazas (28%) or Jérôme Guillem in Langon (32%) or the centrist municipalities like Léognan, La Brède or Martillac were swept away. Enough to give a migraine to the outgoing MoDem MP Sophie Mette who had built her 2022 victory in the north of the constituency. The challenge is immense for the parliamentarian from Bazas.
10e constituency (Libourne)
Florent Boudié, the outgoing Renaissance former member of the PS, will run for a fourth legislative election. But the next one has never been so perilous. The RN is in the lead everywhere in its constituency. He managed to do well in the 2022 legislative elections on a personal equation. However, the horrors experienced by the presidential majority made the magic disappear. Facing him, he will find Sandrine Chadourne, regional elected representative of the RN. In 2022, 2,000 votes separated them, votes which had been captured by a Reconquest candidate.
12e constituency (Entre-deux-Mers)
The Macronist deputy for Entre-deux-Mers, Pascal Lavergne, created the feat by beating Mathilde Feld (Nupes, LFI) by 300 votes during the last legislative election. The challenge is even more complicated this time with the electoral charge of the RN which even wins the more urban municipalities in the north of the constituency (Latresne, Camblanes). In June 2022, the farmer deputy from Monségur took advantage of the division of the left and the nomination of the unknown RN candidate in Entre-deux-Mers, Hager Jacquemin. For June 30, the RN has not yet designated its candidate. The mayor of La Réole Bruno Marty (ex-PS) is deep in thought. Insoumise Mathilde Feld is awaiting the results of discussions at national and departmental level.
