OTTAWA | The growing popularity of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party among immigrants and non-Francophones could give it a historic breakthrough on the island of Montreal, believes pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
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According to the most recent survey, Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 36% among non-French speakers in Quebec.
This data, even with a small sample of respondents, confirms a trend that the pollster has been observing for some months now.
“Newcomers and immigrants are more open to Pierre Poilievre’s candidacy than ever before, at least since the Harper era,” according to Mr. Léger. “We take it for granted that immigrants vote for the Liberal Party, but that is no longer true.”
Opening
This greater “openness” to conservatives among immigrants, “a new phenomenon linked to Mr. Poilievre”, will be decisive in the result of the next election.
“It’s true in Quebec and it’s even more true in the rest of Canada,” he said.
If confirmed, this trend could allow the conservatives to make gains in large, more diverse cities, from which they were largely driven out during the last three elections.
A Léger survey dating from the beginning of the year on the political affiliation of newcomers indicated a statistical equality between conservatives (24%) and liberals (22%), although with a significant share (38%) of undecided people.
To Montreal
The new enthusiasm of immigrants and non-Francophones for the Conservative Party could allow it to be competitive in certain Montreal ridings, believes the pollster.
We have to go back to the Mulroney era, in the 1980s, to identify a Conservative MP on the island of Montreal.
The Conservative Party has long had a reputation as a party less open to immigrants.
Certain proposals put forward by Stephen Harper during the 2015 elections, such as the telephone line for denouncing “barbaric cultural practices”, were roundly criticized within the party itself.
The conservatives had, however, managed to create bridges with cultural communities, which allowed them, among other things, to obtain a majority mandate in 2011.
METHODOLOGY: Web survey conducted from May 31 to June 3, 2024 among 1,015 Quebecers aged 18 or over, using the LEO online panel. For comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1015 respondents is ± 3.08%, 19 times out of 20.
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