More than 49 million French voters are called to the polls today, with polls giving the National Rally the big winner, but turnout could still hold surprises.
Today, more than 49 million French voters are called to vote. Recent polls place the National Rally in the lead, giving the impression that the results have already been achieved.
However, several factors could still upset the forecasts, notably the participation rate.
A surprising participation
Voting began yesterday in overseas territories, including Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, as well as in the Pacific, French Polynesia and New Caledonia.
In these regions, a sharp increase in turnout was observed. Pollsters estimate that turnout could reach around 65%, compared to 47% in the previous legislative elections in 2022.
That is 6 to 7 million additional voters whose voting intentions remain unknown.
Complexity of French legislative elections
The legislative elections in France function like 577 small presidential elections, where each constituency elects its deputy.
Unlike the presidential election, where only two candidates face each other in the second round, the legislative elections allow any candidate who obtains 12.5% to remain in the second round.
With an increase in participation, this threshold will be easier to reach, which could result in dozens or even a hundred triangulars (Editor’s note: a triangular designates a second round where three candidates are qualified to face each other).
Towards a coalition?
This situation makes the results very uncertain, with margins of a few hundred votes being able to make the difference. For example, one candidate could get 31% of the vote, another 30%, and a third 29%, making any prediction difficult.
One possible scenario is that no party obtains an absolute majority, requiring the formation of a coalition, a practice that has been unusual in France since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
If this happens, the French political landscape could see a significant change, similar to what we see in Belgium.
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