D-1 before the legislative elections in France: why the latest polls, which give the RN the winner, do not mean “much”

D-1 before the legislative elections in France: why the latest polls, which give the RN the winner, do not mean “much”
D-1 before the legislative elections in France: why the latest polls, which give the RN the winner, do not mean “much”

End of the suspense, this Sunday evening. Live, our RTL Info special correspondent Christophe Giltay offers us his analysis of the situation.

According to our France expert, Christophe Giltay, this election will be “historical”. “It would be the first time since 1940 and Marshal Pétain that France could be led by the extreme right”he emphasizes. But “nothing is certain”since since Friday evening, polls have been banned. The latest ones gave the National Rally 36%, the Left Front 29% and the presidential majority 20%.

“But that doesn’t mean much,” emphasizes Christophe Giltay. “This is not a proportional election, but a two-round majority election with 577 constituencies, or as many small presidential elections. And there, with the profile of the candidates, the local establishments, all that plays a big part”estimates our journalist.

The turnout rate must also be taken into account, since in the European elections of June 9, which led Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly, and therefore to provoke these early legislative elections, only around 50% of French people voted.

“This time, we are announcing a participation of around 68%”or much more. “And we don’t know what these new voters who are going to head to the polls are going to do.” A large number of proxies have been signed: 2.6 million of them.

“For pollsters, it is therefore very complicated to see what the 48 million French voters will do.” Results this Sunday around 8 p.m.

legislative elections in France elections rn national gathering

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