In Burkina Faso, strange events raise questions about the fate of President Ibrahim Traoré

Is Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s regime faltering? Since the explosion of a rocket on Wednesday June 12 near the presidency located in downtown Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, rumors reporting a growing protest within the army against the transitional president persist.

In recent days, the junta’s communications teams have worked to minimize the explosion of June 12, immediately described as simple “shooting incident” by national television on its Facebook page. “The projectile unfortunately fell within the national television premises, causing two minor injuries and were quickly treated by the presidential health service,” underlined the state media, while a few meters away, Captain Traoré was exfiltrated from the current council of ministers which was being held at the presidency. In the process, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces ordered the “general alert of all detachments” according to an internal message leaked on social networks.

On May 17, the same confusion reigned after an exchange of fire at the presidency that state media had already described as “ shooting incident.” Several security sources had mentioned a change of mood among the military.

This time again, the authorities remained silent. For 48 hours, Captain Traoré did not appear in public, fueling rumors about his possible exfiltration from the capital following an attempted putsch. One of the hypotheses was that he took refuge in the Loumbila camp, about twenty kilometers from Ouagadougou, where Wagner’s Russian paramilitaries were based.

Two days later, he appeared serene and smiling in a video broadcast on national television on Friday June 14. We see the head of the junta donating blood in premises presented as those of the presidential palace, on the occasion of World Blood Donor Day.

Growing revolt within the army

But, on social networks, Internet users doubt the authenticity of these images, just like those, broadcast the same day by the pro-Russian black supremacist Kemi Seba on his X account (formerly Twitter), of his meeting with the head of the junta. The presence of Captain Traoré at the Tabaski prayer on the grounds of the University of Ouagadougou, relayed on Sunday June 16 by several state media, with supporting photos, was also called into question by several local sources.

Were some of these photos really doctored and then published by the authorities in order to reassure the Burkinabés? In Ouagadougou, the sources who still dare to express themselves – systematically requesting anonymity – on the reality of the political and security situation in the country are becoming rarer as the junta accelerates its authoritarian turn. All fear being threatened, kidnapped, incarcerated or sent by force to the front by the junta, as dozens of critical voices have been before them in recent months.

However, several West African and European security sources working on Burkina Faso confirmed to World Africa the existence of a growing revolt within the army against Captain Traoré. A discontent which was affirmed following the jihadist attack perpetrated on June 11 against the military camp of Mansila, in the north-east of the country.

Vultures of a putsch?

At least 107 soldiers were killed in this large-scale assault, claimed by the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM, affiliated with Al-Qaeda) on Sunday June 16, but for which the regime has no responsibility. I didn’t say a word.

“This lack of consideration has outraged some soldiers and has fueled frustration that has been building for several months. More and more soldiers are opposing Ibrahim Traoré’s military strategy and his desire to cling to power while they die by the dozens, by the hundreds at the front. underlines a Western security source based in the Sahel.

Ibrahim Traoré knows better than anyone that his poor management of the security situation could be fatal to him. The motive was one of the main invoked during the overthrows of the last two heads of state – elected president Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in January 2022, then lieutenant-colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba in September of the same year. Will the memory of these precedents be enough to rule out attempts at a putsch, when the junta has already announced that it has foiled several since coming to power? Within the army, fault lines are multiplying.

In recent months, several security and humanitarian sources in the Sahel report that the “Traoré method” made up of forced disappearances of officers deemed to be protesters, clan management of the state apparatus and multiplication of abuses against civilians in the framework of anti-terrorist military operations, like the deployment of Russian paramilitaries, is not unanimous within the army.

Saturday June 15 and Sunday June 16, three successive landings on the tarmac of Ouagadougou airport of the same Russian Iliouchine II-76 plane coming from Gao, a town in northern Mali where Russian mercenaries are also deployed, continued to fueling the climate of tension and uncertainty.

According to flight tracking specialists who reported these aerial rotations on the social network X, the same Ilyushin II-76 had already transported Wagner mercenaries to Africa in the past. While a first salvo of around a hundred Russian paramilitaries has already landed in the Burkinabe capital at the end of January, several international security and humanitarian sources now fear that the junta is only seeking to strengthen its own protection against any attempt at overthrow. within the troop.