Betrayals on the right, purges and renunciations on the left behind a facade of unity, risk of blocking of institutions, even violence or riots… and this is now a few weeks before the Olympic Games. Since Emmanuel Macron’s announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly, opening the way to an express campaign and explosive legislative elections, France has been fractured, divided like never before. Tottering above a volcano of popular anger which could undermine nothing less than the stability of the country.
The sin of pride of the French president, whose judgment is biased by what is akin to a “narcissistic injury” in the face of the choice expressed by his compatriots during the European elections, poses a systemic risk to France, but also more broadly to European cohesion. His responsibility is overwhelming. His bet, crazy. His fault, historical. The financial markets, true barometers of the perception of future risks, are not mistaken: the Paris Stock Exchange lost no less than 6% last week. While the rates at which the French State refinances itself are getting closer to those in force… in Greece. France is now seen as a drunken boat, deprived of a rudder in the middle of a storm.
French legislative elections: “The Republicans risk dying slowly”
All the ingredients of an infernal spiral are now in place, reviving the specter of a new major economic and financial crisis in France, with obviously much wider consequences. Because, in the absence of a Republican surge during the legislative elections, a scenario at this stage unlikely in the absence of strong leadership and real electoral dynamics, the scenario of cohabitation could impose itself on Emmanuel Macron. Opening Matignon to one of the two radical blocs which could benefit from this political and institutional chaos: the National Rally of Marine Le Pen or the “New Popular Front”, where La France Insoumise by Jean-Luc Mélenchon will be essential. Two forces which have in common, beyond their ideological differences, to rely on incoherent, demagogic and above all unfundable economic programs for a State where public spending and tax levels are already reaching peaks. The French social model is in danger. The shock wave on Europe, inevitable
