(BFM Bourse) – The specialist in motorhomes and leisure vehicles saw its turnover increase by more than 7% on a comparable basis in the third quarter. But the market context is difficult for this cyclical stock.
Trigano continues its good momentum. The specialist in motorhomes and leisure vehicles unveiled its activity on Monday evening for the third quarter of its 2023-2024 financial year, which will end at the end of next August.
From March to May, the company generated revenues of 1.15 billion euros, reflecting growth of 10.8% on a reported basis and 7.4% on a comparable basis.
On motorhomes alone, the company indicated that it had recorded an increase in volumes of around 10% to which is added a positive impact of prices and mix (the distribution of sales on more expensive models) which led to a total growth of 16% over the quarter.
Oddo BHF explains that the publication is close to its expectations, slightly higher (1.15 billion euros published, compared to 1.1 billion euros expected by the research office).
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A cyclical value
Regarding its prospects, Trigano explains that “the normalization of chassis deliveries by automobile manufacturers has made it possible to satisfy demand and to replenish – in some cases beyond what is necessary – the stocks of manufacturers and distribution networks”. “The good direction of the market should make it possible to regulate this situation in the coming months,” adds the company.
Trigano also indicates that it has recorded a level of order intake at this stage “in line with (its) expectations”.
However, today’s publication is followed by a drop in the title. Trigano shares fell 6% at the start of the afternoon.
“The third quarter’s activity is rather good but the market is looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, for which it is too early to have visibility. Management explains for the moment that growth is not certain and it can therefore see a certain form of caution on the part of the market”, indicates Emmanuel Parot, analyst at Gilbert Dupont.
“There is a certain form of wait-and-see attitude on the part of the market, with a notable outflow on mid-caps since the announcement of the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron. However, many analysts are counting on a decline in the next financial year for Trigano In this context, with cyclical and declining activity, Trigano has a profile which leads it to undergo releases”, explains Arnaud Despré, analyst at Portzamparc.
A cheap title
“This while the performance of the third quarter remains good and the valuation remains low. At 3.5 times the expected current operating profit compared to a ten-year average of around 7-8, the worst is probably already priced in” , he adds.
This observation is shared by Oddo BHF which confirmed its advice to “outperform” while adjusting its price target to 180 euros against 195 euros. The broker considers the current multiple levels too low because this data assumes a “too pessimistic” scenario on current operating income for the 2024-2025 financial year.
As a precaution, Oddo BHF is nevertheless including a scenario of a 5% drop in Trigano’s turnover for the next financial year, in order to take into account in particular the “normalization of stocks” of leisure vehicles.
Julien Marion – ©2024 BFM Bourse
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